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NZD/USD: 7543/7785

AUD/USD: 9960/1.0188

NZD/AUD: 7528/7673


Last week

With the troubled Egypt abating a little the markets settled down to a state of what might be called normality. The data here at home continues to be weak, especially in housing where the average Kiwi has decided not to continue their love affair with property.

Continued good data or should I say, normal data, has started to see yields increasing over there as the market has starting looking at the Big buck as a safe haven once again.

Across the ditch monetary policy looks set to continue as it is.

This week

A heavy data week coming along this week with loads out off shore. Without any new flare ups like Egypt etc we should see the market react to more fundamentals than we have seen of late.

We think that the USD will continue to rally from here as it finally looks to have established a base.

This should see Kiwi/AUD and Euro top out and start to decline slowly.

Fund news

We have received one sign off and await the balance so expect to have this completely soon




NZD/USD: 7523/7797

AUD/USD: 9805/1.0076

NZD/AUD: 7679/7827


Last week

TheRBNZ statement surprised the market last week with a slightly less dovish statement than expected, this saw Kiwi take off immediately and since has sustained its gains.

The data out of the US continued to improve last week, marginally so this also helped kiwi rally as risk was put back on the table.

The troubles in Egypt has reinforced the safe haven aspect of the the big Dollar, along with this the FOMC  was unchanged but they look set to take anymore QE2 easing off the table going forward.

Weaker CPI data out of Aussie saw a rally in the NZD/AUD but it still remains within the current trading band

This week

Further unease in the middle east will keep the USD strong as the world once again flocks to the safe haven of the big buck... not sure how safe it is any longer.

Wiuth food shortages in the forefront of teh news it looks like a double banger for teh NZD as floews here downunder have increased since last week and with the rbnz being alittle more hawkish than previously expected, however as we all know sentiment changes pretty quickely and kiwi should remain in teh current trading band.



Still awaiting final sign off from the different legal teams.


Tuesday 25th January 2011



NZD/USD: 7524/7791

AUD/USD: 9832/1.0076

NZDAUD:  7645/7794


Last week

Kiwi opened the week strong but failed once again near 78cents and after the weak CPI release it fell out of bed along with the Euro and AUD. The ongoing issues in Europe just won’t go away and continue to weigh heavily on all the currencies. However, a late rally on Friday pushed Euro higher as the market was caught short.

NZD/AUD fell from the highs as expected after the CPI data and now looks to bounce around the current range

This week

More of the same, I know it sounds lame but the European rhetoric will not go away anytime soon so the market will bounce around on any release.

Kiwi appears to be range bound for now but I think that the domestic economy continues to underperform and that will cap any rallies of significance.

Watch the OCR this week for nothing as the RBNZ  stays on hold and keeps the statement very similar.

FOMC from the states on Thursday will be watched closely to see if there’s any change.



Still awaiting  the  final sign off as we said last week, it is in motion but it needs to do the round of 4 sets of legal teams first, so it takes a couple of weeks and is one of the reasons that it has been so slow in coming out



Tuesday 18th January 2011



NZD/USD  7340/7815

AUD/USD  9802/1.0255

NZD/AUD   7400/7800


Over the break

The Kiwi experienced its usual rally over the holiday period. This was countered early by some positive data out of the States and the continued worries around European sovereign debt. The European issue just won’t go away and until all the truth comes out then the markets will be at the whim of news releases. The AUD has traded around parity with the USD now for some time and looks set to continue to see saw around this level.

The big mover over the period was a rally back in NZD/AUD as it bounced nicely off the 74cent mark, which was the previous low and has since showed some good signs of strengthening.

From here

Asian inflation issues will have the front seat for a bit here, as the market looks at the Chinese raising rates followed by a host of other Asian economies.

This will underpin Aussie and Kiwi for the meantime but can be countered slightly by some positive results out from the US.

The other side of the coin is as we have said the European sovereign debt issues, it looks like the old world is truly starting to fall behind.

Expect to see Kiwi trade inside of 74-80 for a bit as most currencies apart to be in midrange for now


We expect a final resolution this month regarding NZCCY issues. The counterparties have final drafts now and we expect them signed off soon.




Last week

The week was dominated by the strength of the USD, this was mainly due to a very weak Euro as continued concerns around European debt levels refuse to go away. With Spain, Ireland and Portugaul all getting downgrades last week the outlook for these countries (and more) is far from certain. We have even heard gossip that Germany is making noise about leaving the Euro.

Data here at home has been very weak, with some of the poorest retail sales data released in years. This was the first retail sales data following the increase in GST so it wasn’t too unexpected that it would be negative, however the size of the decrease was extraordinary.


This week

Further developments in Europe will be the key drivers from here, we  expect to see no change in the theme as the markets chase their tails into the festive season

Kiwi land has another big week of data ahead just to round off the year. With GDP, and current account due Wednesday and Thursday. This will be key to see whether or not Kiwi can hold here above the key support levels. We think that Kiwi will push lower at any rate as the European issues will continue to lean on the bird and the flight to USD assets will strengthen the big dollar


Fund Update

With the festive season upon us and the lawyers closing up, we do not expect any progress before mid January 2011.  We will be pushing for a resolution before the end of January.


Have a great Christmas and a happy new year.



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