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Monday 29th March 2010
Ranges NZD/USD: .7000/7096 AUD/USD: .9002/9197 NZD/AUD: .7666/7797 Last week Kiwi held the important 70 cent level last week as month end flows, very weak Euro, and a strong USD failed to push Kiwi lower. However, the market was very quiet last week, and things remained inside recent ranges. Some good and bad data out of Kiwi land last week, which balanced out, and will have not of changed the RBNZ ‘s outlook. Greece and Portugal dominated the global picture, with downgrades and rescue packages a plenty. What we did Traded the range Got caught short NZD/AUD and stopped out
This week The Greek rescue package has caught the market short Euro, as almost every punter has been on the one way bet, so look for this correction coming up. This will underpin Kiwi on the week, along with the proposed RBA rate decision later on next month. Even with the USD strengthening, the world is looking slightly more rosy so the risk trades will once again come into the fore. Lots of data out next month locally and with things sitting around the mid points we can’t see any reason for the currencies to break out of recent ranges especially as we come into the long Easter weekend. What we will do Trade the ranges Cautiously buy Euro on dips
The Week Ahead Monday 29 Mar JN Retail Sales – yoy - Feb UK Mortgage Lending – bln - Feb M4 Money Supply – mom – Feb EC Eurozone Economic Sentiment - Mar Eurozone Consumer Sentiment - Mar
Tuesday 30 Mar US Personal Income – mom – Feb Personal Spending – mom – Feb Core PCE Deflator – mom – Feb Dallas Feb Mfg Survey – Feb NZ Building Permits – mom – Feb AU RBA Deputy Governor Debelle speaks JN Household spending – yoy – Feb Unemployment rate – Feb NZ M3 Money Supply – yoy – Feb UK GDP – qoq - Q4 – Final Current Account –Q4
Wednesday 31 Mar UK Gfk consumer confidence – Mar JN Manufacturing PMI – Mar US S&P Case Shiller 20 City House Price Index – mom – Feb Consumer Confidence- Mar NZ NBNZ Business Confidence AU Retail Sales – mom – Feb Private Sector Credit – mom – Feb Building Approvals – mom –m Feb GE Unemployment Change – Mar Unemployment Rate – Mar EC Unemployment rate – Feb CPI inflation – Flash estimate – Mar
Thursday 1 Apr US ADP Employment Change – Mar CA GDP – mom – Jan US Chicago PMI – Mar Factory Orders – mom – Feb NAPM Milwaukee – Mar JP Tankan – capex estimate – Q1 Tankan – large manufacturers – Q1 Tankan – large non-manufacturers – Q1 AU Trade Balance – Feb RBA Commodity Price Index – yoy – SDR terms GE Retail Sales – mom – Feb PMI Manufacturing – Mar EC PMI Manufacturing– Mar UK PMI Manufacturing – Mar
Friday 2 Apr US Initial Jobless Claims – Mar 28th Continuing Claims – Mar 21st ISM Manufacturing – Mar Construction Spending – mom – Feb
Saturday 3 Apr US Change in Non-farm payrolls - M |
