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MONDAY 12TH APRIL 2010
Ranges NZD/USD: .6963/7170 AUD/USD: .9167/9350 NZD/AUD .7550/7679
Last week Kiwi managed to stay above the key 70 cent mark last week which has ensured a bid time to the market, as soon as the Greek rescue package was announced. Along with this some good data at the end of the week, and the risk trades generally were sought after, confirmed the direction. The Dollar failed its latest rally as the currencies took flight along with the Euro. NZD/AUD had a run south early on in the week, but reversed as the good data release came out of NZ and the market was caught short on Friday night.
What we did Long Kiwi at the first part of the week Stayed out of it on Friday night, as the market caught itself over positioned.
This week Big story early Monday morning was the Greek rescue package. This saw Euro jump strongly in the extremely thin open this morning, dragging all the risk currencies with it, and of course giving the Dollar a smack lower. This looks to be the trend for this week with the market overly short Euros and with the Dow recovering the risk trades will benefit the most. Watch out for more negative releases out of Europe though, just to throw a spanner in the works but big levels have been breached topside now and these should provide strong support on dips. Lots and lots of US data out this week.
What we will do Buy Euros on dips along with Aussie. Stay neutral Kiwi here Buy USD/JPY
THE WEEK AHEAD MONDAY 12 Apr JP BOJ Monetary Policy Minutes- March M3 – y/y - Mar AU Value of housing loans – m/m - Feb
TUESDAY 13 Apr US Monthly Budget Statement - Mar NZ Electronic Card Transactions – m/m - Mar UK RICS House Price Balance - Mar AU NAB Business Confidence - Mar GE Consumer Price Index – y/y – Mar F UK Total Trade Balance – Feb
WEDNESDAY 14 Apr US Trade Balance - Feb Import Price Index - y/y - Mar ABC Consumer Confidence – Apr 12 NZ Retail Sales - m/m - Feb Retail Sales (ex-auto) – m/m - Feb US Bernanke speech on financial literacy Fed’s Lacker speech on US economic outlook NZ Non-resident bond holdings - Mar
THURSDAY 15 Apr US Consumer Price Index – y/y - Mar Core CPI – y/y - Mar Advance retail sales – Mar Business Inventories - Feb Bernanke Testimony before Joint Economic Committee of Congress Fed’s Beige Book NZ Business NZ PMI - Mar JP Industrial Production – m/m – Feb F EC ECB April Monthly Report Trade Balance - Feb
FRIDAY 16 Apr US Initial Jobless Claims – Apr 11 Continuing Claims – Apr 4 Empire Manufacturing - Apr Net Long-term TIC flows - Feb Industrial Production – m/m - Mar Capacity Utilisation - Mar Philadelphia Fed - Apr Fed Lacker Speech Fed’s Bullard Speech on financial risks NAHB Housing Market Index - Apr NZ REINZ House Sales – y/y - Mar US Fed’s Yellen Speech on US outlook EC EU finance chiefs, central bankers hold informal Ecofin Euro-Zone CPI – y/y - Mar Euro-Zone core CPI – y/y - Mar
SATURDAY 17 Apr US Housing Starts – Mar University of Michigan Consumer Confidence – Apr P Fed Hoenig Speech on Financial Crisis |
