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MONDAY 19TH APRIL 2010
Ranges NZD/USD: . 7065/7155 AUD/USD: . 9203/9362 NZD/AUD: . 7610/7725
Last week Pretty quiet here at home, with small ranges, even though we saw a massively weak Retail Sales data release(-0.6% against forecast of 0.2%), and a surprisingly robust house sales data on Friday. All the action was abroad in Europe, with plenty of bish bash around over the Greek affair and other countries not doing do well. Some mixed data out of the States didn’t help, and of course all topped off with the investigation into Goldman Sachs announced late Friday. You would have thought they would have learnt after what we ve all been through over the past two years. What we did Traded ranges really, good trading NZD/AUD This week The big data out here this week will be the CPI due out tomorrow. This will have key impact on the RBNZ’s rate decision; we are thinking that it might be a bit stronger then expected with petrol prices stroneger than those forecast. Apart from this, we think Kiwi should grind slowly lower over the week as the Euro looks terrible, and with market risk now been taken off the table, so expect to see it sub 70cents soon. Globally the picture remains the same with teh Dollar stregtening slowly and teh euro zone weakening. Watch for us existing home/new home sales, as this data stream has been lagging of late and a pick up here will be extremely good for the big buck
What we will do Sell rallies in nzd Buy nzd aud on dips Wait for US data before really forming a view on it
THE WEEK AHEAD
MONDAY 19-Apr UK Rightmove House Prices (MoM) – Apr Rightmove House Prices (YoY) – Apr JN Consumer Confidence – Mar EC Construction Output SA MoM – Feb Construction Output WDA YoY - Feb
TUESDAY 20-Apr US Leading Indicators - Mar NZ Food Prices (MoM) - Mar Consumer Prices (QoQ) - 1Q Consumer Prices (YoY) - 1Q AU Reserve Bank's Board April Minutes - Apr 20 JN Machine Tool Orders (YoY) - Mar F GE Producer Prices (MoM) - Mar Producer Prices (YoY) - Mar EC ECB Euro-Zone Current Account SA - Feb Euro-Zone Current Account nsa - Feb UK CPI (YoY) - Mar EC ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) - Apr GE ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) - Apr Zew Survey (Current Situation) - Apr
WEDNESDAY 21-Apr AU DEWR Skilled Vacancies MoM - Apr JN Leading Index CI - Feb F Coincident Index CI - Feb F UK Bank of England Minutes - Apr 21 Claimant Count Rate - Mar Jobless Claims Change - Mar Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY - Feb Weekly Earnings exBonus 3M/YoY - Feb ILO Unemployment Rate (3mths) - Feb
THURSDAY 22-Apr JN Merchnds Trade Balance Total - Mar AU New Motor Vehicle Sales MoM - Mar NZ ANZ Consumer Confidence Index - Apr GE PMI Services - Apr A PMI Manufacturing - Apr A EC Euro-Zone Govt Debt/GDP Ratio - Jan 2010 PMI Services - Apr A PMI Manufacturing - Apr A UK Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel(MoM) - Mar Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel(YoY) - Mar Public Sector Net Borrowing - Mar M4 Money Supply (YoY) - Mar P Major Banks Mortgage Approvals - Mar
FRIDAY 23-Apr US Producer Price Index (MoM) - Mar PPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) - Mar Producer Price Index (YoY) - Mar PPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) - Mar Initial Jobless Claims - Apr 18 Continuing Claims - Apr 11 House Price Index MoM - Feb Existing Home Sales MoM - Mar EC Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence - Apr A NZ Visitor Arrivals - Mar AU Import price index (QoQ) - 1Q Export price index (QoQ) - 1Q NZ Credit Card Spending SA (MoM) - Mar Credit Card Spending (YoY) - Mar JN All Industry Activity Index (MoM) - Feb GE IFO - Business Climate - Apr IFO - Current Assessment - Apr IFO - Expectations - Apr UK GDP (QoQ) - 1Q A GDP (YoY) - 1Q A EC Industrial New Orders SA (MoM) - Feb Industrial New Orders SA (YoY) - Feb
SATURDAY 24-Apr US Durable Goods Orders - Mar Durables Ex Transportation – Mar New Home Sales MoM – Mar
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