|
MONDAY 26TH APRIL 2010
Ranges NZD/USD: . 7056/7170
Last week Despite a lower than expected CPI release, and the Greek issue refusing to go away, the Kiwi held in very well last week. With risk returning to the table, Kiwi and AUD look like they are in a consolidation period. Even with the US posting great new home sales data, the Euro plummeting and the Greeks needing another 40 bio of cash from the Euro countries, Kiwi seems irrepressible at the moment. Some of this has been due to the market being overly short NZD against the AUD and this cross has now squeezed higher. What we did Traded the ranges really as all curriencies remained inside until Friday night
This week Big week here at home with the OCR due out on Thursday, steady as she goes will be the outcome. With the RBNZ hitting the nail on the head, they are on track for the much anticipated hike earily in Q3. FOMC on Thursday morning will keep us on our toes as the market waits to see what the fed will do with rates, and the associated commentary, after some pretty incouraging data of late. Look to see NZD remain bid against the AUD, especially if RBNZ is a little more bullish. But even if they aren’t, the market is well short that cross and any rally will be sold into as AUD have finished raising for now and we are about to start, to saying nothing on how the market is positioned. The Euro? Well it’s the Euro, lets wait and see what happens this week with the Greek problem, it isn’t going to go away. What we will do Buy NZD AUD on any dip Buy Dol/Yen Trade wider range in risk currencies
THE WEEK AHEAD
MONDAY 26-Apr UK Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) - APR Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) - APR JN Corp Service Price Index (YoY) - MAR
TUESDAY 27-Apr US Dallas Fed Manf. Activity - APR AU Producer Price Index (QoQ) - 1Q NAB Business Confidence – 1Q Producer Price Index (YoY) - 1Q JN Small Business Confidence - APR GE GfK Consumer Confidence Survey - MAY UK BBA Loans for House Purchase - MAR
WEDNESDAY 28-Apr US S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY - FEB S&P/CS 20 City MoM% SA - FEB Richmond Fed Manufact. Index - APR Consumer Confidence – APR ABC Consumer Confidence JN Retail Trade MoM SA – MAR Retail Trade YoY – MAR Large Retailers' Sales – MAR AU Consumer Prices (QoQ) – 1Q Consumer Prices (YoY) - 1Q RBA Trimmed Mean (YoY) - 1Q RBA Weighted Median (YoY) – 1Q NZ NBNZ Business Confidence - APR US MBA Mortgage Applications -
THURSDAY 29-Apr US FOMC Rate Decision - NZ RBNZ Official Cash Rate Trade Balance – MAR Imports – MAR Exports – MAR NZ Trade Balance 12 Mth YTD - MAR AU Conference Board Leading Index - FEB NZ Money Supply M3 YoY – MAR GE Unemployment Rate (s.a) – APR EC Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) – MAR Euro-Zone Indust. Confidence - APR Business Climate Indicator - APR Euro-Zone Economic Confidence - APR
FRIDAY 30-Apr US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index - MAR Initial Jobless Claims – Apr 24 Continuing Claims – Apr 17 NZ Building Permits MoM - MAR UK GfK Consumer Confidence Survey - APR JN Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI - APR Overall Hhold Spending (YoY) - MAR Jobless Rate - MAR Tokyo CPI YoY - APR Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy YoY - APR Natl CPI YoY - MAR Natl CPI Ex Food, Energy YoY - MAR Industrial Production (MoM) - MAR P Industrial Production YOY% - MAR P AU HIA New Home Sales (MoM) - MAR Private Sector Credit MoM% - MAR Private Sector Credit YoY% - MAR JN Labor Cash Earnings YoY - MAR Vehicle Production (YoY) - MAR Housing Starts (YoY) - MAR EC Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) - APR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate - MAR
SATURDAY 01-May US GDP QoQ (Annualized) - 1Q A Personal Consumption - 1Q A GDP Price Index - 1Q A Core PCE QoQ - 1Q A Employment Cost Index - 1Q Chicago Purchasing Manager - APR U. of Michigan Confidence - APR F NAPM-Milwaukee - APR CH PMI Manufacturing - APR |
