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MONDAY 17 MAY 2010 Ranges NZD/USD: . 7061/7294 AUD/USD: . 8857/9043 NZD/AUD: . 7938/8040 Last week Needless to say, again, the European situation ruled the week. Basically the Euro construct looks like it is falling apart and in this environment, risk is certainly coming off the table. Although Kiwi remained pretty solid throughout the week, in the end it all started catching up with it and a run to Dollars finished the week. Some poor Retails data out here at home has capped the Kiwi against the AUD for now, and it looks set to trade a nice range for a bit. What we did Stayed short NZD throughout the week This week More of the same! I know it sounds like a broken record, but it’s going to take a miracle to keep the market from tail spinning the Euro. With loads of comments about over the weekend not helping, it looks like the glue is coming apart over there. Commodities lower across the board, as is oil, so the flight to the big buck will continue, it looks like we have seen some highs for a while; stock markets and commodities amongst them. Look for Kiwi AUD and Euro to be sold on any rally at all. What we will do Sell Euro Kiwi and AUD on any rally Trade recent range in NZD/AUD.
THE WEEK AHEAD Mon 17 May US May NY Fed “Empire State” Factory Idx Mar Net Long Term TIC Flows May NAHB Housing Market Index Jpn Mar Machinery Orders Apr Corporate Goods Prices
Tue 18 May NZ Q1 Producer Input Prices Q1 Producer Output Prices Aus RBA May Board Minutes RBA Head of Fin Stability Ellis speaks – Secretary to the Treasury, Ken Henry – US Apr PPI Apr PPI Core Apr Housing Starts Apr Building Permits Fedspeak – – – Pianalto on economic forecasting! Jpn Mar Tertiary Activity Index Eur Apr CPI (F) Mar Trade Balance Ger May ZEW Analysts Survey UK Apr CPI May CBI Industrial Trends Survey
Wed 19 May Aus May Westpac-MI Consumer Sentiment 116.1 Q1 Wage Price Index RBA Assist Gov Edey speaks – US Apr CPI Apr CPI Core Apr 28 FOMC Meeting Minutes – UK May BoE Minutes – – Can Mar Wholesale Sales
Thu 20 May NZ Budget 2010 NZDbn Aus May WBC-MI Unemployment May MI Inflation Expectations US Initial Jobless Claims May Philadelphia Fed Index Apr Leading Index Jpn Q1 GDP %saar Eur May Consumer Confidence Advance Ger Apr Producer Prices %yr UK Apr Retail Sales incl fuel Can Apr Leading Index
Fri 21 May NZ Apr External Migration ann. Apr Credit Card Transactions US Fedspeak – – – NY Fed President Dudley – Jpn Bank of Japan Decision Eur Mar Current Account €bn – May PMI Factory Advance May PMI Services Advance Ger Q1 GDP (F) May IFO Business Climate Index UK Q1 Business Investment Apr PSNCR £bn 25.8 7.0 Apr M4 Money Supply %yr Apr Major Bank Mortgage Approvals Can Apr CPI Apr CPI BoC Core Mar Retail Sales |
