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MONDAY 24TH MAY 2010
Ranges NZD/USD: . 6637/7040 AUD/USD: . 807/8791 NZD/AUD: . 7935/8236 Last week Kiwi finally got what it deserved last week, as it caught up with the rest of the market and was sold heavily all week. For once AUD fell further than Kiwi did, and fell almost 10 percent as a market over positioned in both AUD/USD and AUD/NZD liquated to say the least. The global concerns regarding the Euro have affected all the markets and we have seen some of the moves reminiscent of the credit crunch in 2008. Rest assured our position sizes have shrunken accordingly. The budget didn’t give us any surprises apart from a small increase to the GDP forecast and really to be honest everything was absolutely sidelined by offshore events. What we did Traded small positions and didn’t get caught on the squeeze higher. This week Totally the same. Watch for more releases out of Europe as the market continues to digest any remark made by various officials. The market is still a huge seller on rallies from here, especially now that we have seen some shorts taken back. So expect to see the lows retested again. A bit of data out locally but it won’t drive the Kiwi around, as global events will far outweigh any thing release d here. What we will do Sell everything on rallies but keep positions very small as volatility is high
THE WEEK AHEAD MONDAY 24-May AU New Motor Vehicle Sales MoM - APR New Motor Vehicle Sales YoY - APR JN All Industry Activity Index (MoM) - MAR BOJ Monthly Report – MAY Supermarket Sales (YoY) - APR
TUESDAY 25-May US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index - APR Existing Home Sales MoM - APR NZ RBNZ 2yr Inflation Expectation - 2Q UK Nat'wide House prices sa (MoM) - MAY Nat'wide House prices nsa(YoY) - MAY GDP (YoY) - 1Q P BBA Loans for House Purchase - APR EC Industrial New Orders SA (MoM) - MAR Industrial New Orders SA (YoY) - MAR
WEDNESDAY 26-May US S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY - MAR S&P/CS 20 City MoM% SA - MAR S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI YOY% - 1Q Richmond Fed Manufact. Index - MAY Consumer Confidence - MAY House Price Index MoM - MAR House Price Purchase Index QoQ - 1Q JN BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes - APR AU Westpac Leading Index (MoM) - MAR Construction Work Done - 1Q JN Small Business Confidence - MAY GE GfK Consumer Confidence Survey - JUN
THURSDAY 27-May US Durable Goods Orders - APR Durables Ex Transportation - APR New Home Sales - APR New Home Sales MoM - APR NZ Trade Balance - APR Imports - APR Exports - APR NZ Trade Balance 12 Mth YTD - APR JN Merchnds Trade Balance Total - APR Adjusted Merchnds Trade Bal. - APR Merchnds Trade Exports YoY - APR Merchnds Trade Imports YoY - APR AU Conference Board Leading Index - MAR Private Capital Expenditure - 1Q UK U.K. CBI May Distributive Trades - MAY
FRIDAY 28-May US GDP QoQ (Annualized) - 1Q S Personal Consumption - 1Q S GDP Price Index - 1Q S Core PCE QoQ - 1Q S Initial Jobless Claims - May 22 Continuing Claims - May 15 GE CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) - MAY P CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) - MAY P EC EC OECD June Economic Outlook - JUN NZ Building Permits MoM - APR UK GfK Consumer Confidence Survey - MAY JN Overall Hhold Spending (YoY) - APR Jobless Rate - APR Natl CPI YoY - APR Natl CPI Ex Food, Energy YoY - APR Retail Trade MoM SA - APR Retail Trade YoY - APR Large Retailers' Sales - APR NZ Money Supply M3 YoY - APR GE Import Price Index (MoM) - APR
SATURDAY 29-May US Personal Income - APR Personal Spending - APR PCE Core (MoM) - APR PCE Core (YoY) - APR Chicago Purchasing Manager - MAY U. of Michigan Confidence - MAY F NAPM-Milwaukee - MAY
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