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MONDAY 31ST MAY 2010 Ranges NZD/USD: .6570/6856 AUD/USD: .8057/ 8546 NZD/AUD: . 7990/8160
Last week Pretty simple really - massive selling of all currencies especially the Euro which hit a 4 year low of 1.2140 ish early in the week. With the Dow pushing under the 10000 mark it looked like another re run of 2008, until we saw a relief rally in both the stocks and the currencies on Thursday/Friday. That was of course until Fitch downgraded Spain and the Greeks are nowhere near out the woods and along with the various local Spanish banks who are struggling for liquidity. It was a wild week. What we did Stayed short Kiwi all week until it bounced and went long, ending the week squaring up at the highs. Sold Euro on rallies This week Again, it’s a case of watching what will happen in Europe. With rumours abounding about the Greeks pulling out of the Euro and further Spainish bank defaults it should be an interesting one. Bank of Canada rate decision this week. This will be watched here, as they have a close correlation to the RBNZ. Kiwi has outperformed a lot of currencies and now with Kiwi/GBP around 50, its all looking like its gone a little too far. Friday night’s nonfarm payrolls will be a doozey, as will RBA tomorrow. It’s going to be another busy one . What we will do Trade small amounts, Sell Euro on rallies Watch the 66-70 cent range in Kiwi and trade that
THE WEEK AHEAD Monday 31-May JN Industrial Production (MoM) - APR P AU TD Securities Inflation MoM% - MAY TD Securities Inflation YoY% - MAY HIA New Home Sales (MoM) - APR Private Sector Credit MoM% - APR Private Sector Credit YoY% - APR Current Account Balance - 1Q Company Operating Profit QoQ% - 1Q Inventories - 1Q JN Labor Cash Earnings YoY - APR AU Rismark Median House Prices - MAY NZ NBNZ Business Confidence - MAY AU Quarterly Wage Agreements - 4Q JN Vehicle Production (YoY) - APR Housing Starts (YoY) - APR Annualized Housing Starts - APR Construction Orders (YoY) - APR EC Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) - APR Business Climate Indicator - MAY Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence - MAY F Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) - MAY Euro-zone Services Confidence - MAY
Tuesday 01-Jun AU AiG Performance of Mfg Index - MAY CH PMI Manufacturing - MAY AU Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) - APR Building Approvals (MoM) - APR CH HSBC Manufacturing PMI - MAY AU RBA Rate Decision - May Meeting JN Vehicle Sales (YoY) - MAY GE Retail Sales (MoM) - APR Retail Sales (YoY) - APR Unemployment Change (000's) - MAY Unemployment Rate (s.a) - MAY PMI Manufacturing - MAY F EC PMI Manufacturing - MAY F UK PMI Manufacturing - MAY EC Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate - APR
Wednesday 02-Jun US ISM Manufacturing - MAY ISM Prices Paid - MAY Construction Spending MoM - APR Dallas Fed Manf. Activity - MAY AU Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) - 1Q Gross Domestic Product (YoY) - 1Q NZ ANZ Commodity Price Index - MAY UK Net Consumer Credit - APR Mortgage Approvals - APR M4 Money Supply (MoM) - APR F M4 Money Supply (YoY) - APR F EC Euro-Zone PPI (MoM) - APR Euro-Zone PPI (YoY) - APR
Thursday 03-Jun US Pending Home Sales MoM - APR Domestic Vehicle Sales - MAY Total Vehicle Sales - MAY AU AiG Performance of Service Index - MAY JN Capital Spending - 1Q AU Trade Balance - APR UK Nat'wide House prices sa (MoM) - MAY GE PMI Services - MAY F EC PMI Services - MAY F PMI Composite - MAY F UK PMI Services - MAY EC Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) - APR
Friday 04-Jun US ADP Employment Change - MAY Initial Jobless Claims - May 29 Continuing Claims - May 22 Factory Orders - APR ISM Non-Manf. Composite - MAY ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY - MAY EC Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) - 1Q P Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (YoY) - 1Q P
Saturday 05-Jun US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls - MAY Unemployment Rate - MAY Avg Hourly Earning MOM All Emp - MAY Avg Weekly Hours All Employees - MAY
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