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MONDAY 11TH OCTOBER 2010
Ranges NZD/USD: .7373/7592 AUD/USD: . 9550/9902 NZD/AUD: . 7633/7750
Last week The week was dominated by the upwards run in the Aussie, as it continues to approach parity with the USD. This has been no surprise as the economics across the ditch are very strong and the theme was cemented last week by more strong data. Along with this, the USD market is now the shortest it has been since 2008 and you only have to look at the USD/JPY rate 81.60 to see how weak the USD really is. Its only ever spent 12 weeks below this level and every time has rebounded by 25%. Beware the Dollar bears This week As Kiwi continues to get dragged along with the rest of the globe, we expect to see it climb slowly from here. Beware that even though the NZD/USD rate is very high, the Kiwi which is a measure of NZD against the basket of our 56 main trading partners, has hardly moved; mainly due to the depreciation against the Aussie. There will be further jaw boning from finance ministers about the levels of their currencies, however this hardly ever works. The Bank of Japan has spent USD28 billion dollars trying to keep the USD/JPY rate above 84.00 and it hasn’t worked yet. Beware a massive short covering rally. Fund news Awaiting the final sign off still
DATA FOR THE WEEK AHEAD MONDAY 11-Oct AU Home Loans - AUG
TUESDAY 12-Oct UK RICS House Price Balance - SEP AU NAB Business Conditions - SEP NAB Business Confidence - SEP JN Consumer Confidence - SEP Consumer Confidence Households - SEP GE Consumer Price Index (MoM) - SEP F Consumer Price Index (YoY) - SEP F CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) - SEP F CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) - SEP F Wholesale Price Index (MoM) - SEP Wholesale price Index (YoY) - SEP UK DCLG UK House Prices (YoY) - AUG CPI (MoM) - SEP CPI (YoY) - SEP Core CPI YOY - SEP RPI (MoM) - SEP RPI (YoY) - SEP RPI Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY) - SEP Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mn - AUG Trade Balance Non EU GBP/Mn - AUG Total Trade Balance (GBP/Mln) - AUG
WEDNESDAY 13-Oct US NFIB Small Business Optimism - SEP IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism - OCT Minutes of FOMC Meeting - 41183 NZ Food Prices (MoM) - SEP UK Nationwide Consumer Confidence - SEP JN Japan Money Stock M2 YoY - SEP Japan Money Stock M3 YoY - SEP Machine Orders (MoM) - AUG Machine Orders YOY% - AUG AU Westpac Consumer Confidence Index - OCT NZ Non Resident Bond Holdings - SEP CH Trade Balance (USD) - SEP Exports YoY% - SEP Imports YoY% - SEP UK Jobless Claims Change - SEP Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY - AUG Weekly Earnings exBonus 3M/YoY - AUG ILO Unemployment Rate (3mths) - AUG EC Euro-Zone Ind. Prod. wda (YoY) - AUG Euro-Zone Ind. Prod. sa (MoM) - AUG
THURSDAY 14-Oct US Import Price Index (MoM) - SEP Import Price Index (YoY) - SEP NZ REINZ House Sales YoY% - SEP Retail Sales (MoM) - AUG Retail Sales Ex-Auto (MoM) - AUG REINZ Housing Price Index MoM% - SEP Business NZ PMI - SEP JN Domestic CGPI (MoM) - SEP Domestic CGPI (YoY) - SEP AU Consumer Inflation Expectation - OCT JN Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) - SEP Machine Tool Orders (YoY) - SEP F
FRIDAY 15-Oct US Trade Balance - AUG Producer Price Index (MoM) - SEP PPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) - SEP Producer Price Index (YoY) - SEP PPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) - SEP Initial Jobless Claims - 40087 Continuing Claims - 37530 CH Actual FDI (YoY) - SEP Money Supply - M0 (YoY) - SEP Money Supply - M1 (YoY) - SEP Money Supply - M2 (YoY) - SEP New Yuan Loans - SEP JN Industrial Production (MoM) - AUG F Industrial Production YOY% - AUG F Capacity Utilization (MoM) - AUG F EC Euro-Zone CPI - Core (YoY) - SEP Euro-Zone CPI (MoM) - SEP Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) - SEP F Euro-Zone Trade Balance sa - AUG Euro-Zone Trade Balance - AUG
SATURDAY 16-Oct CH Foreign Exchange Reserves - SEP China Property Prices - SEP US Consumer Price Index (MoM) - SEP CPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) - SEP Consumer Price Index (YoY) - SEP CPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) - SEP Advance Retail Sales - SEP Retail Sales Less Autos - SEP Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas - SEP Empire Manufacturing - OCT U. of Michigan Confidence - OCT P Business Inventories - AUG Monthly Budget Statement - SEP |
