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MONDAY 1ST NOVEMBER 2010 Ranges NZD/USD: .7416/7647 AUD/USD: .9678/9864 NZD/AUD: .7575/7809 Last week Kiwi outperformed last week as some of the data releases came out on the positive side, and the market was caught overly short Kiwi against the AUD. However, the recent range has held tight and I don’t think that we will see this range break this week, but that will depend on the FOMC meeting on Thursday. The world was caught short USD’s as well, so we have seen a rally there, but not the big correction that we have all been looking for. All in all, a quiet week. This week The big event will be the FOMC meeting on Thursday. This will define the direction of the USD for the rest of the year, and by proxy, where everything else will head. It all depends on the size of the QE2, that’s not the ship, its the amount of liquidity the FED pump into the system. RBA this week across the ditch will also be closely watched, I’m thinking that they will raise rates but only by a small amount, 25 pips, and this of course, will come in the middle of the big horse race down in Melbourne. Update No further news, but awaiting some important calls this week
DATA OUT FOR THE WEEK AHEAD MONDAY 1-Nov AU AiG Performance of Mfg Index - OCT TD Securities Inflation MoM% - OCT TD Securities Inflation YoY% - OCT UK Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) - OCT Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) - OCT AU House Price Index QoQ - 3Q House Price Index YoY - 3Q CH PMI Manufacturing – OCT NZ ANZ Commodity Price – OCT CH HSBC Manufacturing PMI – OCT JN Vehicle Sales (YoY) – OCT AU RBA Commodity Index SDR YoY% - OCT UK PMI Manufacturing – OCT
TUESDAY 2-Nov US Personal Income - SEP Personal Spending - SEP PCE Deflator (YoY) - SEP PCE Core (MoM) - SEP PCE Core (YoY) - SEP ISM Manufacturing - OCT ISM Prices Paid - OCT NZ Average Hourly Earnings QoQ - 3Q JN Monetary Base (YoY) - OCT AU RBA Interest Rate Decision - NOV GE PMI Manufacturing - OCT F EC PMI Manufacturing - OCT F UK PMI Construction - OCT
WEDNESDAY 3-Nov AU AiG Performance of Service Index - OCT Building Approvals (MoM) - SEP Building Approvals (YoY) - SEP CH China Non-manufacturing PMI - OCT China HSBC Services PMI - OCT UK PMI Services - OCT
THURSDAY 4-Nov US Challenger Job Cuts YoY - OCT ADP Employment Change - OCT ISM Non-Manf. Composite - OCT Factory Orders - SEP FOMC Rate Decision - NOV NZ Participation Rate (QoQ) - 3Q Employment Change (QoQ) - 3Q Unemployment Rate - 3Q Employment Change (YoY) - 3Q AU Trade Balance - SEP Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) - SEP Retail Sales Ex Inflation(QoQ) - 3Q EC PMI Composite - OCT F PMI Services - OCT F GE PMI Services - OCT F EC Euro-Zone PPI (MoM) - SEP UK BOE Asset Purchase Target - NOV BOE Interest Rate Decision - NOV Nonfarm Productivity - 3Q P Unit Labor Costs - 3Q P Initial Jobless Claims - Oct 30 Continuing Claims - Oct 23 EC ECB Interest Rate Decision - NOV AU RBA Monetary Policy Statement - NOV UK PPI Input NSA (YoY) – OCT PPI Output n.s.a. (YoY) – OCT PPI Output Core NSA (YoY) - OCT GE Factory Orders YoY (nsa) – SEP Factory Orders MoM (sa) – SEP EC Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) - SEP Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) - SEP
FRIDAY 6-Nov JN BOJ Interest Rate Decision - NOV US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls - OCT Change in Private Payrolls - OCT Change in Manufact. Payrolls - OCT Unemployment Rate – OCT Avg Hourly Earning MOM All Emp - OCT Avg Hourly Earning YOY All Emp - OCT Avg Weekly Hours All Employees - OCT Pending Home Sales MoM - SEP Pending Home Sales YoY - SEP Consumer Credit - SEP UK Halifax House Prices sa (MoM) - OCT
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