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MONDAY 1ST NOVEMBER 2010

Ranges

NZD/USD:            .7416/7647

AUD/USD:           .9678/9864

NZD/AUD:           .7575/7809

Last week

Kiwi outperformed last week as some of the data releases came out on the positive side, and the market was caught overly short Kiwi against the AUD. However, the recent range has held tight and I don’t think that we will see this range break this week, but that will depend on the FOMC meeting on Thursday.

The world was caught short USD’s as well, so we have seen a rally there, but not the big correction that we have all been looking for. All in all, a quiet week.

This week

The big event will be the FOMC meeting on Thursday. This will define the direction of the USD for the rest of the year, and by proxy, where everything else will head. It all depends on the size of the QE2, that’s not the ship, its the amount of liquidity the FED pump into the system.

RBA this week across the ditch will also be closely watched, I’m thinking that they will raise rates but only by a small amount, 25 pips, and this of course, will come in the middle of the big horse race down in Melbourne.

Update

No further news, but awaiting some important calls this week

 

DATA OUT FOR THE WEEK AHEAD

MONDAY 1-Nov

AU   AiG Performance of Mfg Index - OCT

     TD Securities Inflation MoM% - OCT

     TD Securities Inflation YoY% - OCT

UK   Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) - OCT

     Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) - OCT

AU   House Price Index QoQ - 3Q

     House Price Index YoY - 3Q

CH   PMI Manufacturing – OCT

NZ   ANZ Commodity Price – OCT

CH   HSBC Manufacturing PMI – OCT

JN   Vehicle Sales (YoY) – OCT

AU   RBA Commodity Index SDR YoY% - OCT

UK   PMI Manufacturing – OCT

 

TUESDAY 2-Nov

US   Personal Income - SEP

     Personal Spending - SEP

     PCE Deflator (YoY) - SEP

     PCE Core (MoM) - SEP

     PCE Core (YoY) - SEP

     ISM Manufacturing - OCT

     ISM Prices Paid - OCT

NZ   Average Hourly Earnings QoQ - 3Q

JN   Monetary Base (YoY) - OCT

AU   RBA Interest Rate Decision - NOV

GE   PMI Manufacturing - OCT F

EC   PMI Manufacturing - OCT F

UK   PMI Construction - OCT

 

WEDNESDAY 3-Nov

AU   AiG Performance of Service Index - OCT

     Building Approvals (MoM) - SEP

     Building Approvals (YoY) - SEP

CH   China Non-manufacturing PMI - OCT

     China HSBC Services PMI - OCT

UK   PMI Services - OCT

 

THURSDAY 4-Nov

US   Challenger Job Cuts YoY - OCT

     ADP Employment Change - OCT

     ISM Non-Manf. Composite - OCT

     Factory Orders - SEP

     FOMC Rate Decision - NOV

NZ   Participation Rate (QoQ) - 3Q

     Employment Change (QoQ) - 3Q

     Unemployment Rate - 3Q

     Employment Change (YoY) - 3Q

AU   Trade Balance - SEP

     Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) - SEP

     Retail Sales Ex Inflation(QoQ) - 3Q

EC   PMI Composite - OCT F

     PMI Services - OCT F

GE   PMI Services - OCT F

EC   Euro-Zone PPI (MoM) - SEP

UK   BOE Asset Purchase Target - NOV

     BOE Interest Rate Decision - NOV

     Nonfarm Productivity - 3Q P

     Unit Labor Costs - 3Q P

     Initial Jobless Claims - Oct 30

     Continuing Claims - Oct 23

EC   ECB Interest Rate Decision - NOV

AU   RBA Monetary Policy Statement - NOV

UK   PPI Input NSA (YoY) – OCT

     PPI Output n.s.a. (YoY) – OCT

     PPI Output Core NSA (YoY) - OCT

GE   Factory Orders YoY (nsa) – SEP

     Factory Orders MoM (sa) – SEP

EC   Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) - SEP

     Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) - SEP

 

FRIDAY 6-Nov

JN   BOJ Interest Rate Decision - NOV

US   Change in Nonfarm Payrolls - OCT

     Change in Private Payrolls - OCT

     Change in Manufact. Payrolls - OCT

     Unemployment Rate – OCT

     Avg Hourly Earning MOM All Emp - OCT

     Avg Hourly Earning YOY All Emp - OCT

     Avg Weekly Hours All Employees - OCT

     Pending Home Sales MoM - SEP

     Pending Home Sales YoY - SEP

     Consumer Credit - SEP

UK   Halifax House Prices sa (MoM) - OCT

 

 

 

 

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