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MONDAY 15TH NOVEMBER 2010

 

Ranges

 

NZD/USD:           . 7715/7908

AUD/USD:           .9855/1.016

NZD/AUD:           . 7712/7868

Last week

It had to happen and it did, the short USD story finished with a bang last week as the markets all reversed, especially the commodities.

This has underpinned a reversal in the trend, and you now see Kiwi and AUD alot lower. The Irsh issue has defiantly got the markets concerned, as they are running around looking for a cool 100 billion dollars to fund the short fall in the Irsh financial system. This has caused the other European nations to once again look to their own accounts.

Gold has fallen massively.

This week

It’s going to be more of the same for a bit, as the markets readjusts this week. With the world still very short USD and long commodities, the unwinding of these overstretched positions will take sometime.

Local data out here today will be watched to see how the domestic economy is doing as we have seen some pretty horrible data out of late.

There is lots f US data out this week and speeches from US Fed Governor to watch out for. This will set the tone for all currencies especially if the data is good and we can see the correction continue.

 

Update

We had more meetings last week with the legal guys, and counterparties,  all we can say is that we continue to make progress in getting a statement out to you soon.

DATA OUT FOR THE WEEK AHEAD

Monday 15-Nov

NZ   Performance Services Index - OCT

     Retail Sales Ex Inflation(QoQ) - 3Q

     Retail Sales (MoM) - SEP

     Retail Sales Ex-Auto (MoM) - SEP

JN   Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) - 3Q P

UK   Rightmove House Prices (MoM) - NOV

     Rightmove House Prices (YoY) - NOV

AU   New Motor Vehicle Sales MoM - OCT

     New Motor Vehicle Sales YoY - OCT

JN   Industrial Production (MoM) - SEP F

     Capacity Utilization (MoM) - SEP F

EC   Euro-Zone Govt Debt/GDP Ratio - Dec 31

     Euro-Zone Trade Balance sa - SEP

 

Tuesday 16-Nov

US   Advance Retail Sales - OCT

     Retail Sales Less Autos - OCT

     Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas - OCT

     Empire Manufacturing - NOV

     Business Inventories - SEP

JN   Housing Loans YoY - 3Q

AU   Reserve Bank's Board November Minutes - Nov 15

CH   China Leading Economic Index - Apr 23

UK   DCLG UK House Prices (YoY) - SEP

     CPI (MoM) - OCT

     CPI (YoY) - OCT

     Core CPI YOY - OCT

     RPI (MoM) - OCT

     RPI (YoY) - OCT

EC   Euro-Zone CPI - Core (YoY) - OCT

     Euro-Zone CPI (MoM) - OCT

     Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) - OCT F

GE   Zew Survey (Current Situation) - NOV

EC   ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) - NOV

GE   ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) - NOV

 

Wednesday 17-Nov

US   Producer Price Index (MoM) - OCT

     PPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) - OCT

     Producer Price Index (YoY) - OCT

     PPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) - OCT

     Total Net TIC Flows - SEP

     Net Long-term TIC Flows - SEP

     Industrial Production - OCT

     Capacity Utilization - OCT

     NAHB Housing Market Index - NOV

AU   Westpac Leading Index (MoM) - SEP

     DEWR Skilled Vacancies MoM - NOV

     Wage Cost Index QoQ - 3Q

     Wage Cost Index YoY - 3Q

UK   Bank of England Minutes - Nov 17

     Claimant Count Rate - OCT

     Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY - SEP

     Weekly Earnings exBonus 3M/YoY - SEP

     ILO Unemployment Rate (3mths) - SEP

EC   Construction Output SA MoM - SEP

 

Thursday 18-Nov

US   MBA Mortgage Applications - Nov 12

     Consumer Price Index (MoM) - OCT

     CPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) - OCT

     CPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) - OCT

     Housing Starts - OCT

     Building Permits - OCT

     Housing Starts MOM% - OCT

     Building Permits MOM% - OCT

NZ   Producer Prices- Inputs (QoQ) - 3Q

     Producer Prices- Outputs (QoQ) - 3Q

AU   Average Weekly Wages (QoQ) - AUG

     Average Weekly Wages (YoY) - AUG

NZ   ANZ Consumer Confidence Index - NOV

EC   Euro-Zone Current Account nsa - SEP

UK   M4 Money Supply (YoY) - OCT P

     Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel(MoM) - OCT

     Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel(YoY) - OCT

     Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (MoM) - OCT

     Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (YoY) - OCT

     Public Sector Net Borrowing - OCT

 

Friday 19-Nov

US   Initial Jobless Claims - Nov 13

     Continuing Claims - Nov 6

     Leading Indicators - OCT

     Philadelphia Fed. - NOV

     RPX Composite 28dy YoY - SEP

NZ   Credit Card Spending SA (MoM) - OCT

     Credit Card Spending (YoY) - OCT

JN   All Industry Activity Index (MoM) - SEP

GE   Producer Prices (MoM) - OCT

     Producer Prices (YoY) - OCT

 

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