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MONDAY 29TH NOVEMBER 2010 Ranges NZD/USD: . 7482/7832 AUD/USD: . 9625/9946 NZD/AUD: . 7724/7843
Last week As we expected the market continued its melt down on the back of the Irish debt problem throughout the week. With the Euro heading lower on the back of this, the risk appetite for other currencies lessened and this dragged AUD and Kiwi lower. While you’re down get a kick in, that’s what S and P did to the Kiwi, they lowered the outlook to negative and this sent the Kiwi in to free fall immediately. Along with all this, were the silly North Koreans rattling their sabres and putting more pressure still on all the Asian currencies. In short it was a rush to own USD’s all week. This week Further Euro problems will dominate the week, with the focus now shifting back to Spain, Portugal and now Belgium. The Euro zone debt issues just aren’t going to go away and the market now has this theme firmly in its sites for the next round of selling. Look for more big Dollar buying, as the markets look for a bit of safe haven activity this week. With the Korean issue adding favour and to the big buck Further weakness in the commodity prices will continue as the Chinese look to tighten liquidity. All in all, the risk currencies are sells on rallies and the Dollar is a buy on dips. Fund update The final letter is now in the process of approval.
DATA OUT FOR THE WEEK AHEAD MONDAY 29-Nov NZ Trade Balance - OCT -400M -532M 10:45 NZ NZ Trade Balance 12 Mth YT - OCT 979.5 921 10: D 45 NZ Exports – OCT 3.31B 3.16B 10:45 NZ Imports – OCT 3.78B 3.69B 10:45 JN Retail Trade MoM SA - OCT -0.70% -3.00% 12:50 JN Retail Trade YoY - OCT AU HIA New Home Sales UK Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) - NOV - - -0.90% 13:01 AU Company Operating Profit QoQ% - 3Q 4.00% 18.90% 13:30 AU Inventories - 3Q NZ NBNZ Activity Outlook - NOV 30. NZ NBNZ Business Confidence NZ Money Supply M3 YoY UK Mortgage Approvals UK M4 Money Supply (YoY) EC Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence EC Euro-Zone Economic Confiden Vce Euro-Zone Indust. Confidence 2 EC Euro-zone Services Confidence - NOV 00
TUESDAY 30-Nov EC European Commission GDP Forecasts US Dallas Fed M NZ Building Permits MoM JN Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI - NOV - - JN Jobless Rate – OCT AU RP Data-Rismark Med Val (MoM) - O JN Industrial Production YOY% - OCT P 11.5 UK GfK Consumer Confid -19 AU Building Approvals (YoY) T AU Current Account Balance - 3Q -6600M AU Australia Net Expor AU Private Sector Credit MoM% - OCT 0.20% JN Labor Cash Earnings YoY - JN Vehicle Production (YoY) - OCT - - JN Construction Orders (Yo - - -15.00% 18: Y) - O GE Unemployment Change (000's GE Unemployment Rate (s.a) - NO 7.50% V 7.50% 21:55 EC Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (Yo EC Euro-Zone Unemployment
WEDNESDAY 1-Dec US S&P/CS 20 City MoM% SA - SEP US Chicago Purchasing Manager - NOV 60 US Consumer Confidence - NOV 52.6 50.2 04:00 US NAPM-Milwaukee - NOV - - AU AiG Performance of Mfg Index - - AU Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) - 3Q AU Gross Domestic Product (Y CH PMI Manufacturing - NOV - - NZ ANZ Commodity Price - NOV 54.8 54.7 15:00 CH HSBC Manufacturing PMI - 5 JN Vehicle Sales (YoY) - NOV AU RB dex SDR YoY% - NOV AU RB ice Index Au - NOV GE Retail Sales (MoM) – OCT 1. GE Retail Sales (YoY) – OCT 1. UK Nat'wide House prices nsa(YoY) - NOV 0.50 GE PMI Manufacturing – NOV F 58. EC PMI Manufacturing – NOV F 5 UK PMI Manufacturing – 5
THURSDAY 2-Dec US Challenger Job Cuts YoY - NOV - - -31.80 US ADP Employment Change - NOV 65 US Nonfarm Productivity – 3Q F 2.30 US Unit Labor Costs - 3Q F -0. US ISM Manufacturing – NOV 56. US ISM Prices Paid – NOV 7 US Construction Spending MoM - OCT -0.4 US Fed's Beige Book – Dec 1 08: AU Trade Balance – OCT 2000 AU Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) - OCT 0.40% 0.30% 13: UK PMI Construction – NOV 51. EC Eu Pro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) - 3Q 0. EC Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (YoY) - 3Q P 1.90 EC Eu OCTro-Zone PPI (YoY) - 4.
FRIDAY 3-Dec EC ECB Announces Interest Rates 1.00 US ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY - NOV US Initial Jobless Claims – Nov27 425 US Continuing Claims – Nov 20 4 US Pending Home Sales MoM - OCT -1 AU Ai OVG Performance of Service Index - N - CH China Non-manufacturing PMI - NOV CH China HSBC Services PMI - NOV GE PMI Services - NOV F 58. EC PMI Composite - NOV F 55. EC PMI Services - NOV F 55 UK PMI Services – NOV 5 EC Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) - OCT 0. EC Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) - OCT 1.
SATURDAY 4-Dec US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls - NOV 1 US Change in Private Payrolls - NOV 1 US Change in Manufact. Payrolls - NOV 1K -7K 02: US Unemployment Rate – NOV 9.6 US Av mp - NOVg Hourly Earning MOM All E 0.20 US Avg Hourly Earning YOY All Emp - NOV 1.70 US Avg Weekly Hours All Employees - NOV 3 US ISM Non-Manf. Composite - NOV 5 US Factory Orders – OCT |
