|
MONDAY 6TH OCTOBER 2008 Weekly Ranges: AUD/USD: 0.8329/0.7697
NZD/USD: 0.6884/0.6550
NZD/AUD: 0.8585/0.8240 Last Week:
The whole of last week was determined by the on and off ridiculous situation surrounding the U.S. capital markets rescue package, and the associated politics that went along with it.
This provided tremendous volatility in the markets, as moves were driven purely on news releases associated with this packaged and the subsequent moves in U.S. stocks and futures. What We Did:
We traded AUD and NZD to the downside along with EUR/JPY and NZD/JPY on the occasions when it appeared that the U.S. rescue package would not be approved by House Republicans, and the Dow index was sold off. This worked ok for us over the week, and we otherwise remained sidelined and hedged our options exposures when moves became extended.
This Week:
The above story still dominates activity as the marketplace decides whether the package will make any difference to the U.S. economy, which is clearly slowing considerably. Tomorrow’s RBA interest rate decision will be of significance to this region of course, and the marketplace is now positioning short AUD/USD and AUD/NZD for a potential 50 bp cut tomorrow.The majors are now being driven by assessment of the U.S. package, it’s potential to make a difference or not, and the extent to which Europe has recognised that they have a big problem themselves, and the measures that they are putting to place – which started over the weekend – to prevent the situation becoming as bad in Europe as it is in the U.S. This will provide continued volatility in the EUR/USD and EUR/JPY through-out this week – with EUR/JPY already opening 150 points lower today, from where it closed on Friday night.
What We Will Do:
We are looking for a move lower still in both the NZD/USD and AUD/USD once the market stabilises, and will look for opportunities to place those trades. We will also look to sell EUR/JPY and NZD/JPY on rallies. Monday 6th October NZD
2008 Pre-election Economic and Fiscal
NZIER Bus opinion survey AUD
Quarterly Wage Agreements
AiG performance of construction index JPY
Bank of Japan Rate Decision GBP
HBOS House Price
Industrial & manufacturing production
NIESR GDP est. Tuesday 7th October AUD
RBA Rate Decision
Westpac consumer credit JPY
Lending Index USD
Bernake Speaks
Minutes of FOMC meeting
Consumer Credit
ABC consumer credit Wednesday 8th October AUD
home loans
Investment lending
Foreign reserves
USD
MBA Mtg applications
Pending home salesJPY
Machine orders
Thursday 9th October AUD
Unemployment Rate NZD
REINZ House salesGBP
Trade Balance
BoE Rate Decision USD
Wholesale inventories Friday 10th October USD
Trade Balance
Import Price index
|
