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Monday 1st December 2008 Ranges NZD/USD: 5287/5545
AUD/USD: 6233/6601
NZD/AUD: 8362/8572 Last week
Last week started off with a hiss and a roar, with the bailout packages getting binned by Polsen, and Citi bank looking shakier and shakier, the Dow took an early hit. This sent the currencies into a spin that pushed Kiwi and AUD to their lows taking the Kiwi AUD with it as the market ran out of liquidity in Kiwi. In fact all the JPY crosses were pretty whippy last week, as the risk currencies traded dollar for dollar with the Dows gyrations. Overall, a very average week for US data, all softer than expected as the recession continues to hit home. Much can be said for the scenario here at home, with lower building consents and business confidence. What we did
Traded Kiwi nicely Made some good turns in the NZD/AUD This week
Probably one of busiest weeks ahead with interest decisions for Aussie, and for US, payrolls on Friday night. Aussie are going cut by 75 points and we will go 125 basis points. This should see some renewed confidence starting to creep into a few sectors, in both economies, as funds become easier to come by and the cost of credit reduces. We also think that we will see another 50 basis points early next year from the RBNZ. Lots of other data out as well but this will be over shadowed by the continued gyrations of the Dow. Why the Dow has a direct correlation to the NZD/AUD cross is beyond me but there it is What we will do
Play it close to our chest Trade the great range in AUD and Kiwi which we have seen of lateSell NZD/AUD on rallies Week Ahead
MONDAY 1st Dec
AUS
COMPANY GROSS OPERATING PROFITS, SEP QTR (0030)
INVENTORIES, SEP QTR (0030)
US
ISM MANUFACTURING, NOV (1500)
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING, OCT TUESDAY 2nd Dec
AUS
RBA INTEREST RATEANNOUNCEMENT, DEC (0330)
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE, SEP
RETAIL SALES, OCT (0030)
US
MOTOR VEHICLE SALES, NOV WEDNESDAY 3rd Dec
AUS
GDP, SEP QTR (0030)
US
BEIGE BOOK, DEC (1900)
NON-FARM PRODUCTIVITY (final),
UNIT LABOUR COSTS (final),
ISM NON-MANUFACTURING, NOV THURSDAY 4th Dec
AUS
BUILDING APPROVALS, OCT (0030)
TRADE BALANCE, OCT (0030)
US
FACTORY ORDERS, OCT (1500)
NZ
RBNZ ANNOUNCEMENT ONINTEREST RATES, DEC (2000, THU) FRIDAY 5th Dec
US
NON-FARM PAYROLLS, NOV (1330)
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, NOV (1330)
AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS, NOV
CONSUMER CREDIT, OCT (2000)
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