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Monday 13th October 2008 Weekly Ranges:
AUD/USD: 0.7735/0.6320
NZD/USD: 0.6618/0.5783
NZD/AUD: 0.9415/0.8535 Last Week: As per our last update, the week was dominated once again by developments in the U.S.A. with regards to the financial markets rescue packaged. Finally, and after a 777 down day on the Dow, the packaged was passed (with amendments) with agreement from the House Republicans. Again, the data proved to be weak out of the U.S. and elsewhere, but this was totally overshadowed by the events surrounding the bailout package. The G7 leaders met over the weekend, and have managed, for once, to agree on measures to support the markets. Bank bailouts are prolific in all countries – but appear to provide the only option going forward to avoid total disaster. What We Did: We kept it pretty tight, managed our options exposure, and took some short term plays when they looked extended. This is not a market in which you raise your head above the trench unnecessarily. This Week: At this point in time the measure taken by the G7 leaders over the weekend appears to be well received. The ASX is looking good at the time of writing and the Dow Future is up over 300 points, although the NZX is down on the day. The RBNZ really should have taken the opportunity to cut rates with the G7 central banks when they could have this past week. This can all change overnight of course, but at this point in time it would appear that we might see some stability return to the market place. What We Will Do: We’re long AUD/NZD at this stage, expecting some stability to return to the market, and have sold some AUD/USD put options, based upon this same view. We will be looking to run these positions very tightly though, as this is a ridiculously volatile market. The Week Ahead MONDAY 13th October US
COLUMBUS DAY – MARKETHOLIDAY AUS
ANZ JOB ADVERTISEMENTS, SEP NZ
RETAIL SALES, AUG TUESDAY 14th October AUS
NAB MONTHLY BUSINESS SURVEY, WEDNESDAY 15th October US
FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIRMANBERNANKE SPEAKS ON
“THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FINANCIAL MARKETS”
BEFORE THE ECONOMIC CLUB OF NEW YORK,NEW YORK (1615)
BEIGE BOOK, OCT
PPI,
RETAIL SALES,
BUSINESS INVENTORIES THURSDAY 16th October AUS
RBA BULLETIN, OCT (0030) US
CPI, SEP (1230)
NET LONG-TERM TIC FLOWS, AUG
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, SEP
CAPACITY UTILISATION, SEP (1315)
NAHB HOUSING INDEX, OCT (1700) FRIDAY 17th October AUS
EXPORT PRICE INDEX, SEP QTR
IMPORT PRICE INDEX, SEP QTR US
HOUSING STARTS, SEP (1230)
BUILDING PERMITS, SEP (1230 |
