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MONDAY 11TH OCTOBER 2010
Ranges
NZD/USD: .7373/7592
AUD/USD: . 9550/9902
NZD/AUD: . 7633/7750
Last week
The week was dominated by the upwards run in the Aussie, as it continues to approach parity with the USD. This has been no surprise as the economics across the ditch are very strong and the theme was cemented last week by more strong data. Along with this, the USD market is now the shortest it has been since 2008 and you only have to look at the USD/JPY rate 81.60 to see how weak the USD really is. Its only ever spent 12 weeks below this level and every time has rebounded by 25%.
Beware the Dollar bears
This week
As Kiwi continues to get dragged along with the rest of the globe, we expect to see it climb slowly from here. Beware that even though the NZD/USD rate is very high, the Kiwi which is a measure of NZD against the basket of our 56 main trading partners, has hardly moved; mainly due to the depreciation against the Aussie.
There will be further jaw boning from finance ministers about the levels of their currencies, however this hardly ever works. The Bank of Japan has spent USD28 billion dollars trying to keep the USD/JPY rate above 84.00 and it hasn’t worked yet.
Beware a massive short covering rally.
Fund news
Awaiting the final sign off still
DATA FOR THE WEEK AHEAD
MONDAY 11-Oct
AU Home Loans - AUG
TUESDAY 12-Oct
UK RICS House Price Balance - SEP
AU NAB Business Conditions - SEP
NAB Business Confidence - SEP
JN Consumer Confidence - SEP
Consumer Confidence Households - SEP
GE Consumer Price Index (MoM) - SEP F
Consumer Price Index (YoY) - SEP F
CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) - SEP F
CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) - SEP F
Wholesale Price Index (MoM) - SEP
Wholesale price Index (YoY) - SEP
UK DCLG UK House Prices (YoY) - AUG
CPI (MoM) - SEP
CPI (YoY) - SEP
Core CPI YOY - SEP
RPI (MoM) - SEP
RPI (YoY) - SEP
RPI Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY) - SEP
Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mn - AUG
Trade Balance Non EU GBP/Mn - AUG
Total Trade Balance (GBP/Mln) - AUG
WEDNESDAY 13-Oct
US NFIB Small Business Optimism - SEP
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism - OCT
Minutes of FOMC Meeting - 41183
NZ Food Prices (MoM) - SEP
UK Nationwide Consumer Confidence - SEP
JN Japan Money Stock M2 YoY - SEP
Japan Money Stock M3 YoY - SEP
Machine Orders (MoM) - AUG
Machine Orders YOY% - AUG
AU Westpac Consumer Confidence Index - OCT
NZ Non Resident Bond Holdings - SEP
CH Trade Balance (USD) - SEP
Exports YoY% - SEP
Imports YoY% - SEP
UK Jobless Claims Change - SEP
Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY - AUG
Weekly Earnings exBonus 3M/YoY - AUG
ILO Unemployment Rate (3mths) - AUG
EC Euro-Zone Ind. Prod. wda (YoY) - AUG
Euro-Zone Ind. Prod. sa (MoM) - AUG
THURSDAY 14-Oct
US Import Price Index (MoM) - SEP
Import Price Index (YoY) - SEP
NZ REINZ House Sales YoY% - SEP
Retail Sales (MoM) - AUG
Retail Sales Ex-Auto (MoM) - AUG
REINZ Housing Price Index MoM% - SEP
Business NZ PMI - SEP
JN Domestic CGPI (MoM) - SEP
Domestic CGPI (YoY) - SEP
AU Consumer Inflation Expectation - OCT
JN Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) - SEP
Machine Tool Orders (YoY) - SEP F
FRIDAY 15-Oct
US Trade Balance - AUG
Producer Price Index (MoM) - SEP
PPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) - SEP
Producer Price Index (YoY) - SEP
PPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) - SEP
Initial Jobless Claims - 40087
Continuing Claims - 37530
CH Actual FDI (YoY) - SEP
Money Supply - M0 (YoY) - SEP
Money Supply - M1 (YoY) - SEP
Money Supply - M2 (YoY) - SEP
New Yuan Loans - SEP
JN Industrial Production (MoM) - AUG F
Industrial Production YOY% - AUG F
Capacity Utilization (MoM) - AUG F
EC Euro-Zone CPI - Core (YoY) - SEP
Euro-Zone CPI (MoM) - SEP
Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) - SEP F
Euro-Zone Trade Balance sa - AUG
Euro-Zone Trade Balance - AUG
SATURDAY 16-Oct
CH Foreign Exchange Reserves - SEP
China Property Prices - SEP
US Consumer Price Index (MoM) - SEP
CPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) - SEP
Consumer Price Index (YoY) - SEP
CPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) - SEP
Advance Retail Sales - SEP
Retail Sales Less Autos - SEP
Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas - SEP
Empire Manufacturing - OCT
U. of Michigan Confidence - OCT P
Business Inventories - AUG
Monthly Budget Statement - SEP |
