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MONDAY 26TH JULY 2010
Ranges
NZD/USD: .7028/7288
AUD/USD: .8634/8968
NZD/AUD: .8105/8188
Last week
First off, last week Kiwi tested the lower end of the band and held in nicely, even though the bounce back hasn’t been that fierce, the market has been trading in a very lack lustre mood. The USD sell off over the week looked like it was out of boredom more than anything, as the market awaited the stress test of the European banking system.
It was released after the European close on Friday night, and came out with little useful data. Most commentators are stating that the test was far too narrow and inconclusive to draw any major conclusions from. However 7 banks did fail. This has seen the Euro lower on the open this morning but nothing to write home about.
This week
All eyes here on the RBNZ OCR out on Thursday. With a 25 point rate hike almost guaranteed to push the cash rate up to 3 percent. However, with the world undergoing a much slower and more wobbly recovery the accompanying statement will be dovish. Also the local data has been on the slightly soft side, so look for the grey man to mention a slow domestic economic recovery.
Earlier in the week we have the Aussie CPI which should out shin the CPI here at home, this will see the NZD/AUD sink below 80 cents.
Globally its steady as she goes, as we await the for the next round of news to push the markets in the next direction, for my money I think we are going to see a dip this week in the Euro and a slight rally in the US.
The week ahead
Monday 26-Jul
UK Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) - JUL
Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) - JUL
JN Merchnds Trade Balance Total - JUN
AU Producer Price Index (QoQ) - 2Q
Producer Price Index (YoY) - 2Q
Tuesday 27-Jul
US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index - JUN
New Home Sales - JUN
New Home Sales MoM - JUN
Dallas Fed Manf. Activity - JUL
AU Conference Board Leading Index - MAY
GE GfK Consumer Confidence Survey - AUG
Import Price Index (YoY) - JUN
EC Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) - JUN
Wednesday 28-Jul
US S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Ind - MAY
S&P/CS 20 City MoM% SA - MAY
S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY - MAY
Richmond Fed Manufact. Index - JUL
Consumer Confidence - JUL
AU Consumer Prices (QoQ) - 2Q
RBA Trimmed Mean (QoQ) - 2Q
Consumer Prices (YoY) - 2Q
RBA Trimmed Mean (YoY) - 2Q
RBA Weighted Median (QoQ) - 2Q
RBA Weighted Median (YoY) - 2Q
NZ NBNZ Business Confidence - JUL
NBNZ Activity Outlook - JUL
EC ECB Publishes Bank Lending Survey - APR
THursday 29-Jul
US Durable Goods Orders - JUN
Durables Ex Transportation - JUN
GE Consumer Price Index (MoM) - JUL P
CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) - JUL P
CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) - JUL P
US Fed's Beige Book - JUL
NZ RBNZ Official Cash Rate - JUL
Trade Balance - JUN
Imports - JUN
Exports - JUN
NZ Trade Balance 12 Mth YTD - JUN
JN Retail Trade MoM SA - JUN
AU HIA New Home Sales (MoM) - JUN
NZ Money Supply M3 YoY - JUN
UK Nat'wide House prices sa (MoM) - JUL
Nat'wide House prices nsa(YoY) - JUL
GE Unemployment Rate (s.a) - JUL
UK Net Consumer Credit - JUN
Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings - JUN
Mortgage Approvals - JUN
M4 Money Supply (MoM) - JUN F
M4 Money Supply (YoY) - JUN F
EC Business Climate Indicator - JUL
Euro-Zone Indust. Confidence - JUL
Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence - JUL F
Euro-Zone Economic Confidence - JUL
Euro-zone Services Confidence - JUL
NZ AON 1-Year Inflation Expect - JUL
Friday 30-Jul
US Initial Jobless Claims - 24 JUL
Continuing Claims - 17 JUL
NZ Building Permits MoM - JUN
UK GfK Consumer Confidence Survey - JUL
JN Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI - JUL
Jobless Rate - JUN
Overall Hhold Spending (YoY) - JUN
Natl CPI YoY - JUN
Industrial Production YOY% - JUN P
Industrial Production (MoM) - JUN P
Loans & Discounts Corp YoY - JUN
AU Private Sector Credit MoM% - JUN
Private Sector Credit YoY% - JUN
CH MNI Business Condition Survey - JUL
JN Vehicle Production (YoY) - JUN
Housing Starts (YoY) - JUN
Construction Orders (YoY) - JUN
GE Retail Sales (MoM) - JUN
Retail Sales (YoY) - JUN
EC Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate - JUN
Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) - JUL
Saturday 31-Jul
US GDP QoQ (Annualized) - 2Q A
Personal Consumption - 2Q A
GDP Price Index - 2Q A
Core PCE QoQ - 2Q A
Employment Cost Index - 2Q
Chicago Purchasing Manager - JUL
U. of Michigan Confidence - JUL F
NAPM-Milwaukee - JUL
CH PMI Manufacturing - JUL
Key: AU: Australia, EC: Euro-zone, GE: Germany, JN: Japan |
