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MONDAY 12TH JULY 2010
Ranges
NZD/USD: .6833/7109
AUD/USD: .8332/8776
NZD/AUD: .8071/8210
Last week
The market got a kick in the pants last week, as continued government stimulus boosted all the risk currencies higher. Kiwi rose on the back of the AUD as it soared away, even with the milk auction looking decidedly weak, there was no stopping the shift in global sentiment.
The asset markets rallied nicely and they all finished on, or at near their highs.
What we did
Traded the range over the week
This week
With the medium term punter getting chopped up as global sentiment changes, and with calls for double dip reason and global recover it’s any ones game. The smart money is on range trading. The local markets will continue to be dominated by offshore events.
Australia is once again the darling of the markets, as it’s had some firm data supporting further rates rises. Kiwi will continue to piggy back on the big cushion across the ditch, and we will be watching the CPI data closely here at home.
Big week for the States data wise, and this will set the tone for further medium term moves
What we will do
Trade the 6800/7150 range
Look for further sentiment change
THE WEEK AHEAD
MONDAY 12-Jul
AU Home Loans - MAY
Investment Lending - MAY
Value of Loans MoM - MAY
UK GDP (QoQ) - 1Q F
GDP (YoY) - 1Q F
Current Account (BP) - 1Q
Index of Services (3mth/3mth) - APR
TUESDAY 13-Jul
NZ Food Prices (MoM) - JUN
UK RICS House Price Balance - JUN
AU NAB Business Conditions - JUN
NAB Business Confidence - JUN
JN Industrial Production (MoM) - MAY F
Industrial Production YOY% - MAY F
Capacity Utilization (MoM) - MAY F
Consumer Confidence - JUN
GE Wholesale Price Index (MoM) - JUN
Wholesale price Index (YoY) - JUN
UK CPI (MoM) - JUN
CPI (YoY) - JUN
Core CPI YOY - JUN
DCLG UK House Prices (YoY) - MAY
EC ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) - JUL
GE ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) - JUL
Zew Survey (Current Situation) - JUL
WEDNESDAY 14-Jul
US Trade Balance - MAY
Monthly Budget Statement - JUN
NZ REINZ House Sales YoY% - JUN
REINZ Housing Price Index MoM% - JUN
Retail Sales (MoM) - MAY
Retail Sales Ex-Auto (MoM) - MAY
UK Nationwide Consumer Confidence - JUN
AU Westpac Consumer Confidence - JUL
DEWR Skilled Vacancies MoM - JUL
NZ Non Resident Bond Holdings - JUN
JN BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting - JUL
UK Claimant Count Rate - JUN
Jobless Claims Change - JUN
Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY - MAY
EC Euro-Zone CPI (MoM) - JUN
Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) - JUN F
Euro-Zone CPI - Core (YoY) - JUN
Euro-Zone Ind. Prod. sa (MoM) - MAY
Euro-Zone Ind. Prod. wda (YoY) - MAY
THURSDAY 15-Jul
US Advance Retail Sales - JUN
Retail Sales Less Autos - JUN
Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas - JUN
Business Inventories - MAY
Minutes of FOMC Meeting - JUL
NZ Business NZ PMI - JUN
AU Consumer Inflation Expectation - JUL
New Motor Vehicle Sales MoM - JUN
CH Real GDP YoY - 2Q
Producer Price Index (YoY) - JUN
Purchasing Price Index (YoY) - JUN
Consumer Price Index (YoY) - JUN
Retail Sales (YoY) - JUN
Industrial Production (YoY) - JUN
JN BOJ Target Rate - JUL
Machine Tool Orders (YoY) - JUN F
EC ECB Publishes July Monthly Report - JUL
UK BoE Housing Equity Withdrawal - 1Q
FRIDAY 16-Jul
US Producer Price Index (MoM) - JUN
PPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) - JUN
Producer Price Index (YoY) - JUN
PPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) - JUN
Initial Jobless Claims - 10 Jul
Continuing Claims - 3 Jul
Empire Manufacturing - JUL
Industrial Production - JUN
Capacity Utilization - JUN
Philadelphia Fed. - JUL
NZ CPI (QoQ) - 2Q
CPI (YoY) - 2Q
JN Nationwide Dept. Sales (YoY) - JUN
Tokyo Dept. Store Sales (YoY) - JUN
EC Euro-Zone Trade Balance - MAY
Euro-Zone Trade Balance sa - MAY
SATURDAY 17-Jul
US Consumer Price Index (MoM) - JUN
CPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) - JUN
Consumer Price Index (YoY) - JUN
CPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) - JUN
Consumer Price Index NSA - JUN
Net Long-term TIC Flows - MAY
Total Net TIC Flows - MAY
U. of Michigan Confidence - JUL P |
