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MONDAY 28TH JUNE 2010
Ranges
NZD/USD: .6993/7155
AUD/USD: .8594/8836
NZD/AUD: . 8053/8195
Last week
Even though the ranges were pretty small the volatility inside of those was high. With the Greek problems surfacing again and again, and further talk of it spreading to the usual culprits, the idea of a two tier Euro has once again become talk of the town.
However, most markets were reasonably occupied with the world cup and that’s the reason we haven’t seen any major breaks over the week as traders were too busy watching TV than their screens.
Here at home, the GDP was strong, but the retail sales and housing data were weak. This points to strong exports but the belief in the economy here at home just isn’t coming through.
What we did
Sat on hands like most, with no trend in sight, very small trades
This week
More of the same from the Euro zone I’m afraid, let’s see how far the Greeks can tear down the Euro this week.
The good old current account deficits of the old world have started popping into the heads of the rating agencies. How can the old world afford them they ask? Like the US and Europe mainly. If we see a commodity recover out of the recession, it just might be tipped over again by the dirt of current account deficits, as it was in the Asian crisis.
It has to be said, it feels like the world is hanging in, but only just to the current recovery. It really is fickle out there.
Here at home we expect the Kiwi to be caught between the risk on, risk off, theme out of Europe and the asset markets.
What we will do
Trade the wider range that we saw last week
The Week Ahead
MONDAY 28 JUNE 2010
NZ Jun NBNZ Business Confidence 48.2%
US May Personal Spending
May Personal Income
Jun Dallas Fed Manf. Activity
May Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Fedspeak – – – Warsh.
Jpn May Retail Sales
Eur May Money Supply M3
Tue 29 Jun
NZ May Building Consents s.a.
US Apr S&P/CaseShiller Composite–
Jun Consumer Confidence, CB Index
Jpn May Industrial Production
May Unemployment Rate
May Household Spending
Eur Jun Economic Confidence
Jun Business Climate Index
UK May Net Consumer Credit
May Net Mortgage Lending
Jun GfK Consumer Confidence
Can May Industrial Product Prices
Wed 30 Jun
Aus May Private Credit
US Jun NAPM-Milwaukee 65
Jun Chicago PMI
Jun ADP Employment chg
Fedspeak – – – Evans, Duke, Lockhart.
Jpn Jun Nomura PMI 54.7
May Labour Earnings
May Housing Starts
May Construction Orders
Eur Jun CPI
Ger Jun Unemployment chg
Presidential Elections
UK Q1 GDP Revision
Q1 Business Investment
Q1 Current Account
Jun House Prices
Can Apr GDP
May House Prices
Thu 1 Jul
NZ Jun ANZ Commodity Price Index
Aus May Retail Sales
May Dwelling Approvals .
Jun AiG PMI 56.3
US Jun ISM Manufacturing
May Construction Spending
May Pending Home Sales
Jun Total Vehicle Sales,
Initial Jobless Claims,
Jpn Q2 Tankan Lrg Manuf Conditions
Q2 Tankan Lrg Non–Manuf Conditions
Eur Jun PMI Factory
UK Jun House Prices
Jun Factory PMI
Fri 2 Jul
US Jun Non-Farm Payrolls
Jun Private Payrolls chg
Jun Unemployment Rate a fall.
May Factory Orders
Eur May PPI
UK Jun PMI Construction |
