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MONDAY 31ST MAY 2010
Ranges
NZD/USD: .6570/6856
AUD/USD: .8057/ 8546
NZD/AUD: . 7990/8160
Last week
Pretty simple really - massive selling of all currencies especially the Euro which hit a 4 year low of 1.2140 ish early in the week. With the Dow pushing under the 10000 mark it looked like another re run of 2008, until we saw a relief rally in both the stocks and the currencies on Thursday/Friday. That was of course until Fitch downgraded Spain and the Greeks are nowhere near out the woods and along with the various local Spanish banks who are struggling for liquidity.
It was a wild week.
What we did
Stayed short Kiwi all week until it bounced and went long, ending the week squaring up at the highs.
Sold Euro on rallies
This week
Again, it’s a case of watching what will happen in Europe. With rumours abounding about the Greeks pulling out of the Euro and further Spainish bank defaults it should be an interesting one. Bank of Canada rate decision this week. This will be watched here, as they have a close correlation to the RBNZ.
Kiwi has outperformed a lot of currencies and now with Kiwi/GBP around 50, its all looking like its gone a little too far.
Friday night’s nonfarm payrolls will be a doozey, as will RBA tomorrow. It’s going to be another busy one .
What we will do
Trade small amounts,
Sell Euro on rallies
Watch the 66-70 cent range in Kiwi and trade that
THE WEEK AHEAD
Monday 31-May
JN Industrial Production (MoM) - APR P
AU TD Securities Inflation MoM% - MAY
TD Securities Inflation YoY% - MAY
HIA New Home Sales (MoM) - APR
Private Sector Credit MoM% - APR
Private Sector Credit YoY% - APR
Current Account Balance - 1Q
Company Operating Profit QoQ% - 1Q
Inventories - 1Q
JN Labor Cash Earnings YoY - APR
AU Rismark Median House Prices - MAY
NZ NBNZ Business Confidence - MAY
AU Quarterly Wage Agreements - 4Q
JN Vehicle Production (YoY) - APR
Housing Starts (YoY) - APR
Annualized Housing Starts - APR
Construction Orders (YoY) - APR
EC Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) - APR
Business Climate Indicator - MAY
Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence - MAY F
Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) - MAY
Euro-zone Services Confidence - MAY
Tuesday 01-Jun
AU AiG Performance of Mfg Index - MAY
CH PMI Manufacturing - MAY
AU Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) - APR
Building Approvals (MoM) - APR
CH HSBC Manufacturing PMI - MAY
AU RBA Rate Decision - May Meeting
JN Vehicle Sales (YoY) - MAY
GE Retail Sales (MoM) - APR
Retail Sales (YoY) - APR
Unemployment Change (000's) - MAY
Unemployment Rate (s.a) - MAY
PMI Manufacturing - MAY F
EC PMI Manufacturing - MAY F
UK PMI Manufacturing - MAY
EC Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate - APR
Wednesday 02-Jun
US ISM Manufacturing - MAY
ISM Prices Paid - MAY
Construction Spending MoM - APR
Dallas Fed Manf. Activity - MAY
AU Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) - 1Q
Gross Domestic Product (YoY) - 1Q
NZ ANZ Commodity Price Index - MAY
UK Net Consumer Credit - APR
Mortgage Approvals - APR
M4 Money Supply (MoM) - APR F
M4 Money Supply (YoY) - APR F
EC Euro-Zone PPI (MoM) - APR
Euro-Zone PPI (YoY) - APR
Thursday 03-Jun
US Pending Home Sales MoM - APR
Domestic Vehicle Sales - MAY
Total Vehicle Sales - MAY
AU AiG Performance of Service Index - MAY
JN Capital Spending - 1Q
AU Trade Balance - APR
UK Nat'wide House prices sa (MoM) - MAY
GE PMI Services - MAY F
EC PMI Services - MAY F
PMI Composite - MAY F
UK PMI Services - MAY
EC Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) - APR
Friday 04-Jun
US ADP Employment Change - MAY
Initial Jobless Claims - May 29
Continuing Claims - May 22
Factory Orders - APR
ISM Non-Manf. Composite - MAY
ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY - MAY
EC Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) - 1Q P
Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (YoY) - 1Q P
Saturday 05-Jun
US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls - MAY
Unemployment Rate - MAY
Avg Hourly Earning MOM All Emp - MAY
Avg Weekly Hours All Employees - MAY
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