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MONDAY 24TH MAY 2010
Ranges
NZD/USD: . 6637/7040
AUD/USD: . 807/8791
NZD/AUD: . 7935/8236
Last week
Kiwi finally got what it deserved last week, as it caught up with the rest of the market and was sold heavily all week. For once AUD fell further than Kiwi did, and fell almost 10 percent as a market over positioned in both AUD/USD and AUD/NZD liquated to say the least. The global concerns regarding the Euro have affected all the markets and we have seen some of the moves reminiscent of the credit crunch in 2008. Rest assured our position sizes have shrunken accordingly.
The budget didn’t give us any surprises apart from a small increase to the GDP forecast and really to be honest everything was absolutely sidelined by offshore events.
What we did
Traded small positions and didn’t get caught on the squeeze higher.
This week
Totally the same. Watch for more releases out of Europe as the market continues to digest any remark made by various officials. The market is still a huge seller on rallies from here, especially now that we have seen some shorts taken back. So expect to see the lows retested again.
A bit of data out locally but it won’t drive the Kiwi around, as global events will far outweigh any thing release d here.
What we will do
Sell everything on rallies but keep positions very small as volatility is high
THE WEEK AHEAD
MONDAY 24-May
AU New Motor Vehicle Sales MoM - APR
New Motor Vehicle Sales YoY - APR
JN All Industry Activity Index (MoM) - MAR
BOJ Monthly Report – MAY
Supermarket Sales (YoY) - APR
TUESDAY 25-May
US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index - APR
Existing Home Sales MoM - APR
NZ RBNZ 2yr Inflation Expectation - 2Q
UK Nat'wide House prices sa (MoM) - MAY
Nat'wide House prices nsa(YoY) - MAY
GDP (YoY) - 1Q P
BBA Loans for House Purchase - APR
EC Industrial New Orders SA (MoM) - MAR
Industrial New Orders SA (YoY) - MAR
WEDNESDAY 26-May
US S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY - MAR
S&P/CS 20 City MoM% SA - MAR
S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI YOY% - 1Q
Richmond Fed Manufact. Index - MAY
Consumer Confidence - MAY
House Price Index MoM - MAR
House Price Purchase Index QoQ - 1Q
JN BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes - APR
AU Westpac Leading Index (MoM) - MAR
Construction Work Done - 1Q
JN Small Business Confidence - MAY
GE GfK Consumer Confidence Survey - JUN
THURSDAY 27-May
US Durable Goods Orders - APR
Durables Ex Transportation - APR
New Home Sales - APR
New Home Sales MoM - APR
NZ Trade Balance - APR
Imports - APR
Exports - APR
NZ Trade Balance 12 Mth YTD - APR
JN Merchnds Trade Balance Total - APR
Adjusted Merchnds Trade Bal. - APR
Merchnds Trade Exports YoY - APR
Merchnds Trade Imports YoY - APR
AU Conference Board Leading Index - MAR
Private Capital Expenditure - 1Q
UK U.K. CBI May Distributive Trades - MAY
FRIDAY 28-May
US GDP QoQ (Annualized) - 1Q S
Personal Consumption - 1Q S
GDP Price Index - 1Q S
Core PCE QoQ - 1Q S
Initial Jobless Claims - May 22
Continuing Claims - May 15
GE CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) - MAY P
CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) - MAY P
EC EC OECD June Economic Outlook - JUN
NZ Building Permits MoM - APR
UK GfK Consumer Confidence Survey - MAY
JN Overall Hhold Spending (YoY) - APR
Jobless Rate - APR
Natl CPI YoY - APR
Natl CPI Ex Food, Energy YoY - APR
Retail Trade MoM SA - APR
Retail Trade YoY - APR
Large Retailers' Sales - APR
NZ Money Supply M3 YoY - APR
GE Import Price Index (MoM) - APR
SATURDAY 29-May
US Personal Income - APR
Personal Spending - APR
PCE Core (MoM) - APR
PCE Core (YoY) - APR
Chicago Purchasing Manager - MAY
U. of Michigan Confidence - MAY F
NAPM-Milwaukee - MAY
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