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MONDAY 17 MAY 2010
Ranges
NZD/USD: . 7061/7294
AUD/USD: . 8857/9043
NZD/AUD: . 7938/8040
Last week
Needless to say, again, the European situation ruled the week.
Basically the Euro construct looks like it is falling apart and in this environment, risk is certainly coming off the table. Although Kiwi remained pretty solid throughout the week, in the end it all started catching up with it and a run to Dollars finished the week.
Some poor Retails data out here at home has capped the Kiwi against the AUD for now, and it looks set to trade a nice range for a bit.
What we did
Stayed short NZD throughout the week
This week
More of the same! I know it sounds like a broken record, but it’s going to take a miracle to keep the market from tail spinning the Euro. With loads of comments about over the weekend not helping, it looks like the glue is coming apart over there.
Commodities lower across the board, as is oil, so the flight to the big buck will continue, it looks like we have seen some highs for a while; stock markets and commodities amongst them. Look for Kiwi AUD and Euro to be sold on any rally at all.
What we will do
Sell Euro Kiwi and AUD on any rally
Trade recent range in NZD/AUD.
THE WEEK AHEAD
Mon 17 May
US May NY Fed “Empire State” Factory Idx
Mar Net Long Term TIC Flows
May NAHB Housing Market Index
Jpn Mar Machinery Orders
Apr Corporate Goods Prices
Tue 18 May
NZ Q1 Producer Input Prices
Q1 Producer Output Prices
Aus RBA May Board Minutes
RBA Head of Fin Stability Ellis speaks –
Secretary to the Treasury, Ken Henry –
US Apr PPI
Apr PPI Core
Apr Housing Starts
Apr Building Permits
Fedspeak – – – Pianalto on economic forecasting!
Jpn Mar Tertiary Activity Index
Eur Apr CPI (F)
Mar Trade Balance
Ger May ZEW Analysts Survey
UK Apr CPI
May CBI Industrial Trends Survey
Wed 19 May
Aus May Westpac-MI Consumer Sentiment 116.1
Q1 Wage Price Index
RBA Assist Gov Edey speaks –
US Apr CPI
Apr CPI Core
Apr 28 FOMC Meeting Minutes –
UK May BoE Minutes – –
Can Mar Wholesale Sales
Thu 20 May
NZ Budget 2010 NZDbn
Aus May WBC-MI Unemployment
May MI Inflation Expectations
US Initial Jobless Claims
May Philadelphia Fed Index
Apr Leading Index
Jpn Q1 GDP %saar
Eur May Consumer Confidence Advance
Ger Apr Producer Prices %yr
UK Apr Retail Sales incl fuel
Can Apr Leading Index
Fri 21 May
NZ Apr External Migration ann.
Apr Credit Card Transactions
US Fedspeak – – – NY Fed President Dudley –
Jpn Bank of Japan Decision
Eur Mar Current Account €bn –
May PMI Factory Advance
May PMI Services Advance
Ger Q1 GDP (F)
May IFO Business Climate Index
UK Q1 Business Investment
Apr PSNCR £bn 25.8 7.0
Apr M4 Money Supply %yr
Apr Major Bank Mortgage Approvals
Can Apr CPI
Apr CPI BoC Core
Mar Retail Sales |
