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Monday 12th January 2009 Ranges
NZD/USD: 5765-6033
AUD/USD: 6923-7262
NZD/AUD: 8196-8436 Happy New Year. Over the holiday period we have seen the markets retain some stability that we saw going into the end of the year. This has been good for Kiwi and Aussie as they have rallied nicely to current levels. Basically we have seen the USD weaken to levels that should be good for the economy. A weaker USD will be much appreciated by the US and should take some of the sting out of the recent bite. Also over the holiday period we have seen oil stop its free fall in price, and along with the rest of commodities we are seeing stability reenter the market What we did
Bought Kiwi and AUD on dips Traded NZD/AUD from the long side as market has got a little out of skew at these levels. This week
Lots of important data out this week, after last Fridays non-farm payrolls data coming in pretty much as expected, the market has been a little staved for data. Most important is the US CPI, business confidence here at home and Aussie employment data. I think that we will see the market continue to gyrate in the wider range of late, but with more emphasis on the local economies now that we seem to have found some stability and trading should revert to normal. The market is still looking for a 100 point interest rate cut in rates here in NZ, however I think that he will do less, as he still has major concerns of domestic inflation and, in his last statement he said that he had done enough to stop the recession. What we will do
Buy AUD and Kiwi on dipsSell USD against Yen and Euro on rallies Week Ahead – January 2009
MONDAY 12 Jan
AUS
ANZ JOB ADVERTISEMENTS, DEC(0030) TUESDAY 13 Jan
US
FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIRMAN BERNANKE SPEAKS ON “THE CRISISAND THE POLICY RESPONSE”
TOTHE LONDON SCHOOL OFECONOMICS, LONDON (1300)
TRADE BALANCE, NOV (1330)
NZ
NZIER QUARTERLY SURVEY OFBUSINESS OPINION, DEC QTR (2100,MON) WEDNESDAY 14 Jan
AUS
HOUSING FINANCE, NOV (0030)
US
BEIGE BOOK, JAN (1900)
IMPORT PRICE INDEX, DEC (1330)
EXPORT PRICE INDEX, DEC (1330)
RETAIL SALES, DEC (1330)
BUSINESS INVENTORIES, NOV (1500)
NZ
BUILDING PERMITS, NOV (2145, TUE) THURSDAY 15 Jan
AUS
RBA BULLETIN, JAN (0030)
EMPLOYMENT, DEC (0030)
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, DEC (0030)
PARTICIPATION RATE, DEC (0030)
US
PPI, DEC (1330) FRIDAY 16 Jan
US
CPI, DEC (1330)
NET LONG-TERM TIC FLOWS, NOV
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, DEC
CAPACITY UTILISATION, DEC (1415) |
