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MONDAY 1ST NOVEMBER 2010
Ranges
NZD/USD: .7416/7647
AUD/USD: .9678/9864
NZD/AUD: .7575/7809
Last week
Kiwi outperformed last week as some of the data releases came out on the positive side, and the market was caught overly short Kiwi against the AUD. However, the recent range has held tight and I don’t think that we will see this range break this week, but that will depend on the FOMC meeting on Thursday.
The world was caught short USD’s as well, so we have seen a rally there, but not the big correction that we have all been looking for. All in all, a quiet week.
This week
The big event will be the FOMC meeting on Thursday. This will define the direction of the USD for the rest of the year, and by proxy, where everything else will head. It all depends on the size of the QE2, that’s not the ship, its the amount of liquidity the FED pump into the system.
RBA this week across the ditch will also be closely watched, I’m thinking that they will raise rates but only by a small amount, 25 pips, and this of course, will come in the middle of the big horse race down in Melbourne.
Update
No further news, but awaiting some important calls this week
DATA OUT FOR THE WEEK AHEAD
MONDAY 1-Nov
AU AiG Performance of Mfg Index - OCT
TD Securities Inflation MoM% - OCT
TD Securities Inflation YoY% - OCT
UK Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) - OCT
Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) - OCT
AU House Price Index QoQ - 3Q
House Price Index YoY - 3Q
CH PMI Manufacturing – OCT
NZ ANZ Commodity Price – OCT
CH HSBC Manufacturing PMI – OCT
JN Vehicle Sales (YoY) – OCT
AU RBA Commodity Index SDR YoY% - OCT
UK PMI Manufacturing – OCT
TUESDAY 2-Nov
US Personal Income - SEP
Personal Spending - SEP
PCE Deflator (YoY) - SEP
PCE Core (MoM) - SEP
PCE Core (YoY) - SEP
ISM Manufacturing - OCT
ISM Prices Paid - OCT
NZ Average Hourly Earnings QoQ - 3Q
JN Monetary Base (YoY) - OCT
AU RBA Interest Rate Decision - NOV
GE PMI Manufacturing - OCT F
EC PMI Manufacturing - OCT F
UK PMI Construction - OCT
WEDNESDAY 3-Nov
AU AiG Performance of Service Index - OCT
Building Approvals (MoM) - SEP
Building Approvals (YoY) - SEP
CH China Non-manufacturing PMI - OCT
China HSBC Services PMI - OCT
UK PMI Services - OCT
THURSDAY 4-Nov
US Challenger Job Cuts YoY - OCT
ADP Employment Change - OCT
ISM Non-Manf. Composite - OCT
Factory Orders - SEP
FOMC Rate Decision - NOV
NZ Participation Rate (QoQ) - 3Q
Employment Change (QoQ) - 3Q
Unemployment Rate - 3Q
Employment Change (YoY) - 3Q
AU Trade Balance - SEP
Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) - SEP
Retail Sales Ex Inflation(QoQ) - 3Q
EC PMI Composite - OCT F
PMI Services - OCT F
GE PMI Services - OCT F
EC Euro-Zone PPI (MoM) - SEP
UK BOE Asset Purchase Target - NOV
BOE Interest Rate Decision - NOV
Nonfarm Productivity - 3Q P
Unit Labor Costs - 3Q P
Initial Jobless Claims - Oct 30
Continuing Claims - Oct 23
EC ECB Interest Rate Decision - NOV
AU RBA Monetary Policy Statement - NOV
UK PPI Input NSA (YoY) – OCT
PPI Output n.s.a. (YoY) – OCT
PPI Output Core NSA (YoY) - OCT
GE Factory Orders YoY (nsa) – SEP
Factory Orders MoM (sa) – SEP
EC Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) - SEP
Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) - SEP
FRIDAY 6-Nov
JN BOJ Interest Rate Decision - NOV
US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls - OCT
Change in Private Payrolls - OCT
Change in Manufact. Payrolls - OCT
Unemployment Rate – OCT
Avg Hourly Earning MOM All Emp - OCT
Avg Hourly Earning YOY All Emp - OCT
Avg Weekly Hours All Employees - OCT
Pending Home Sales MoM - SEP
Pending Home Sales YoY - SEP
Consumer Credit - SEP
UK Halifax House Prices sa (MoM) - OCT
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