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MONDAY 10TH MAY 2010
Ranges
NZD/USD: .7040/7323
AUD/USD: . 8751/9270
NZD/AUD: . 7862/8052
Last Week
Bollard came out of the blocks on Thursday last week, saying the worst of the financial crisis was over and that he will begin to tighten in the coming months. This automatically pushed Kiwi up, and the NZD/AUD cross which has caught the market horrible short, immediately jumped above 80 cents. However, no matter how good things here at home, the global markets are starting to melt down again. With the Euro zone in considerable trouble, the stock markets have tumbled out of bed and taken risk appetites with them.
One of the hedge fund computers went astray and took the Dow down 996 points last week and a $40 share to 1 cent before they pulled the plug. Sell orders placed for 14 billion shares instead of 14 million, wouldn’t want to be that guy. Strange things afoot in New York, 2012 coming closer.
What we did
Bought Kiwi against the AUD
Sold Euro on bounces
This week
A really busy start this morning with the Euro zone hitting the headlights again, all sort s of rumours around big bailout packages needed everywhere. Basically, if it wasn’t for Germany, the Euro zone would fall over. More rumours about European banks searching for money etc etc abounding. Even with the rescue package announced the Euro has fallen a cent this morning. England - well we don’t really need to say anything. Huge debt GDP ratio, huge employment problems and now they don’t have a government to run the country.
Buy AUD and Kiwi and stay home.
What we will do
Watch Euro zone for more fun and games
Buy NZD against GBP and Euro and AUD
Watch for stock markets doing strange things and the computers get it all wrong.
THE WEEK AHEAD
Monday 10-May
JN BoJ Monetary Policy Meetintes
AU ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) -
AU NAB Business Conditions
AU NAB Business Confidence
CH China NDRC Housing Prices
Money Supply - M2 (YoY) -
CH New Yuan Loans -
CH Trade Balance (USD)
CH Exports YoY% - APR
CH Imports YoY% - APR
GE Trade Balance – MAR
GE Imports SA (MoM) - MAR
Current Account (EURO)
Exports SA (MoM) - MAR
EC Sentix Investor Confidence
UK BOE Asset Purchase Target
200B 23:00 UK BOE ANNOUNCES RATES
Tuesday 11-May
NZ NZ Card Spending (MoM) - APR -
UK BRC April Retail Sales Monitor -
UK RICS House Price Balance - APR
CH Producer Price Index (YoY) - APR
CH Purchasing Price Index (YoY) - APR
CH Consumer Price Index (YoY) - APR
CH Retail Sales (YoY) - APR
CH Retail Sales YTD YoY - APR
CH Industrial Production (YoY) - APR
CH Fixed Assets Inv Urban YTD YoY -
GE Consumer Price Index (Mo M) - APR
GE CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) - APR
GE CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) - APR
GE Consumer Price Index (YoY) - APR
GE Wholesale Price Index (MoM) - APR
GE Wholesale price Index (YoY) - APR
UK Industrial Production (MoM)
UK Manufacturing Production
AU Australia 2010/11 Federal Budget -
Wednesday 12-May
US Wholesale Inventories - MAR
US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
AU Home Loans - MAR
AU Investment Lending - MAR -
AU Value of Loans MoM - MAR - -
JN Leading Index CI -
GE GDP s.a. (QOQ)
UK Claimant Count Rate -
UK Jobless Claims Change - APR
UK Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY
UK ILO Unemployment Rate
EC Euro-Zone Ind. Prod. sa (MoM) -
EC Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
UK Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report - MAY
Thursday 13 May
US Trade Balance
US Monthly Budget Statement
NZ Business NZ PMI - APR
NZ Food Prices (MoM) - APR
UK Nationwide Consumer Confidence - APR
JN Current Account Total
JN Adjusted Current Account Total -
JN Trade Balance (BoP Basis)
JN Japan Money Stock M3 YoY - APR
AU RBA Assistant Governor Lowe speech - ColonialForum Sydney
AU Employment Change - APR
AU Unemployment Rate - APR
AU Full Time Employment Change - APR
AU Part Time Employment Change - APR
AU Participation Rate -
EC ECB Publishes May Monthly Report
UK Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mn - MAR -£6407 -£6179 20:
UK Trade Balance Non EU GBP/Mn - MAR - - 20:
UK Total Trade Balance (GBP/Mln) - MAR
UK DCLG UK House Prices (YoY) - MAR
Friday 14 May
US Import Price Index (MoM) - APR
US Initial Jobless Claims - 08 MAY
US Continuing Claims - 01 MAY
NZ REINZ House Sales YoY% - APR
NZ REINZ Housing Price Index MoM% - APR
NZ Retail Sales (MoM) - MAR
NZ Retail Sales Ex-Auto (MoM) - MAR 1.50% -0.90% 10:45
NZ Retail Sales Ex Inflation(QoQ) - 1Q 0.30% 1.00% 10:45
NZ Non Resident Bond Holdings - APR
Saturday 15 May
US Advance Retail Sales - APR
US Retail Sales Less Autos - APR
US Industrial Production - APR
US Capacity Utilization - APR 73. 73. 01:
US U. of Michigan Confidence - MAY P
US Business Inventories - MAR |
