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MONDAY 3RD MAY 2010
Ranges
NZD/USD: . 7101/7320
AUD/USD: . 9137/9321
NZD/AUD: . 7710/7871
Last week
Basically the week revolved around the Greeks and their debt problems. Lots of rumours around early in the week about whether or not the rescue package was actually going to go through, kept everyone on their toes only for Greece to get downgraded to junk bond status. Unfortunately all those mid day siestas are now a thing of the past AS THEY are all going to have to work very hard to get the country back on track; obviously this is not popular as can be seen by all the protests. How many more European countries will we see go this way?
RBNZ statement on Thursday was exactly as planned with Kiwi falling initially, then rallying later in the day as the big mover of the week NZD/AUD recovered lost ground and took out stops.
What we did
Sold Euros on rallies
This week
Already lots of fireworks this morning with the NZD/AUD jumping higher on the new mining tax in Aussie.
Lots and lots of data out this week so it’s going to be a busy one with the RBA tomorrow and nonfarm payrolls and of course the big one here at home, the employment data.
Watch the Euro as it continues to fall , this should keep a top on place in Kiwi along with the fact that most will now be out of their short NZD AUD positions, however that cross still looks well bid.
Overall, a little more stability in the States, and a lot more of the opposite in Europe.
What we will do
Buy NZD/AUD on dips
Sell Euros
Buy USD/JPY
THE WEEK AHEAD
Mon 3 May
NZ Apr ANZ Commodity Price Index
Aus Q1 ABS House Price Index
Apr TD-MI Inflation Gauge
US Mar Personal Income
Mar Personal Spending
Mar Core PCE Deflator
Apr ISM Manufacturing
Mar Construction Spending
Apr Auto Sales mn annualised
Eur Apr PMI Factory (F)
UK Early May Bank Holiday – – – Public holiday.
Tue 4 May
NZ Q1 Labour Cost Index
Q1 QES Private Sector
Aus May RBA Policy Meeting
US Mar Factory Orders
Mar Pending Home Sales
Eur Mar Producer Prices
Ger Mar Retail Sales
UK Mar Net Consumer Credit
Mar Net Mortgage Lending
Apr PMI Factory
Wed 5 May
Aus Mar Dwelling Approvals
US Apr Layoff Announcements
Apr ADP Private Payrolls Chg
Apr ISM Non-Manufacturing
Fedspeak – – – Rosengren in Boston and New York on housing; also Lacker.
Eur Apr PMI Services (F)
Mar Retail Sales –0
UK Apr BRC Shop Price Index
Apr Consumer Confidence
Apr House Prices %yr
Apr PMI Construction
Thu 6 May
NZ Q1 HLFS Employment
Q1 HLFS Unemployment Rate
Aus Mar Retail Trade
Q1 Real Retail Sales
Mar Int’l Trade Balance, AUDbn
US Q1 Non-Farm Productivity
Q1 Unit Labour Costs
Initial Jobless Claims
Apr Chain Store Sales
Fedspeak – – – Bernanke on banking, in Chicago, introduced by Evans.
Eur ECB Rate Decision
Ger Mar Factory Orders
UK Apr PMI Services
Can Mar Building Permits
Apr Ivey PMI non sa
Fri 7 May
Aus May RBA Statement on Monetary Policy
US Apr Non-Farm Payrolls Chg
Apr Unemployment Rate
Mar Consumer Credit
Fedspeak/Ex-Fedspeak – – – Plosser on eco outlook and Greenspan on banking.
Ger Mar Industrial Production
UK Apr Producer Prices
Can Apr Employment |
