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MONDAY 26TH APRIL 2010
Ranges
NZD/USD: . 7056/7170
AUD/USD: . 9160/9340
NZD/AUD: . 7624/7765
Last week
Despite a lower than expected CPI release, and the Greek issue refusing to go away, the Kiwi held in very well last week. With risk returning to the table, Kiwi and AUD look like they are in a consolidation period. Even with the US posting great new home sales data, the Euro plummeting and the Greeks needing another 40 bio of cash from the Euro countries, Kiwi seems irrepressible at the moment. Some of this has been due to the market being overly short NZD against the AUD and this cross has now squeezed higher.
What we did
Traded the ranges really as all curriencies remained inside until Friday night
This week
Big week here at home with the OCR due out on Thursday, steady as she goes will be the outcome. With the RBNZ hitting the nail on the head, they are on track for the much anticipated hike earily in Q3.
FOMC on Thursday morning will keep us on our toes as the market waits to see what the fed will do with rates, and the associated commentary, after some pretty incouraging data of late.
Look to see NZD remain bid against the AUD, especially if RBNZ is a little more bullish. But even if they aren’t, the market is well short that cross and any rally will be sold into as AUD have finished raising for now and we are about to start, to saying nothing on how the market is positioned.
The Euro? Well it’s the Euro, lets wait and see what happens this week with the Greek problem, it isn’t going to go away.
What we will do
Buy NZD AUD on any dip
Buy Dol/Yen
Trade wider range in risk currencies
THE WEEK AHEAD
MONDAY 26-Apr
UK Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) - APR
Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) - APR
JN Corp Service Price Index (YoY) - MAR
TUESDAY 27-Apr
US Dallas Fed Manf. Activity - APR
AU Producer Price Index (QoQ) - 1Q
NAB Business Confidence – 1Q
Producer Price Index (YoY) - 1Q
JN Small Business Confidence - APR
GE GfK Consumer Confidence Survey - MAY
UK BBA Loans for House Purchase - MAR
WEDNESDAY 28-Apr
US S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY - FEB
S&P/CS 20 City MoM% SA - FEB
Richmond Fed Manufact. Index - APR
Consumer Confidence – APR
ABC Consumer Confidence
JN Retail Trade MoM SA – MAR
Retail Trade YoY – MAR
Large Retailers' Sales – MAR
AU Consumer Prices (QoQ) – 1Q
Consumer Prices (YoY) - 1Q
RBA Trimmed Mean (YoY) - 1Q
RBA Weighted Median (YoY) – 1Q
NZ NBNZ Business Confidence - APR
US MBA Mortgage Applications -
THURSDAY 29-Apr
US FOMC Rate Decision -
NZ RBNZ Official Cash Rate
Trade Balance – MAR
Imports – MAR
Exports – MAR
NZ Trade Balance 12 Mth YTD - MAR
AU Conference Board Leading Index - FEB
NZ Money Supply M3 YoY – MAR
GE Unemployment Rate (s.a) – APR
EC Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) – MAR
Euro-Zone Indust. Confidence - APR
Business Climate Indicator - APR
Euro-Zone Economic Confidence - APR
FRIDAY 30-Apr
US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index - MAR
Initial Jobless Claims – Apr 24
Continuing Claims – Apr 17
NZ Building Permits MoM - MAR
UK GfK Consumer Confidence Survey - APR
JN Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI - APR
Overall Hhold Spending (YoY) - MAR
Jobless Rate - MAR
Tokyo CPI YoY - APR
Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy YoY - APR
Natl CPI YoY - MAR
Natl CPI Ex Food, Energy YoY - MAR
Industrial Production (MoM) - MAR P
Industrial Production YOY% - MAR P
AU HIA New Home Sales (MoM) - MAR
Private Sector Credit MoM% - MAR
Private Sector Credit YoY% - MAR
JN Labor Cash Earnings YoY - MAR
Vehicle Production (YoY) - MAR
Housing Starts (YoY) - MAR
EC Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) - APR
Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate - MAR
SATURDAY 01-May
US GDP QoQ (Annualized) - 1Q A
Personal Consumption - 1Q A
GDP Price Index - 1Q A
Core PCE QoQ - 1Q A
Employment Cost Index - 1Q
Chicago Purchasing Manager - APR
U. of Michigan Confidence - APR F
NAPM-Milwaukee - APR
CH PMI Manufacturing - APR |
