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MONDAY 19TH APRIL 2010
Ranges
NZD/USD: . 7065/7155
AUD/USD: . 9203/9362
NZD/AUD: . 7610/7725
Last week
Pretty quiet here at home, with small ranges, even though we saw a massively weak Retail Sales data release(-0.6% against forecast of 0.2%), and a surprisingly robust house sales data on Friday. All the action was abroad in Europe, with plenty of bish bash around over the Greek affair and other countries not doing do well. Some mixed data out of the States didn’t help, and of course all topped off with the investigation into Goldman Sachs announced late Friday. You would have thought they would have learnt after what we ve all been through over the past two years.
What we did
Traded ranges really, good trading NZD/AUD
This week
The big data out here this week will be the CPI due out tomorrow. This will have key impact on the RBNZ’s rate decision; we are thinking that it might be a bit stronger then expected with petrol prices stroneger than those forecast. Apart from this, we think Kiwi should grind slowly lower over the week as the Euro looks terrible, and with market risk now been taken off the table, so expect to see it sub 70cents soon.
Globally the picture remains the same with teh Dollar stregtening slowly and teh euro zone weakening.
Watch for us existing home/new home sales, as this data stream has been lagging of late and a pick up here will be extremely good for the big buck
What we will do
Sell rallies in nzd
Buy nzd aud on dips
Wait for US data before really forming a view on it
THE WEEK AHEAD
MONDAY 19-Apr
UK Rightmove House Prices (MoM) – Apr
Rightmove House Prices (YoY) – Apr
JN Consumer Confidence – Mar
EC Construction Output SA MoM – Feb
Construction Output WDA YoY - Feb
TUESDAY 20-Apr
US
Leading Indicators - Mar
NZ Food Prices (MoM) - Mar
Consumer Prices (QoQ) - 1Q
Consumer Prices (YoY) - 1Q
AU Reserve Bank's Board April Minutes - Apr 20
JN Machine Tool Orders (YoY) - Mar F
GE Producer Prices (MoM) - Mar
Producer Prices (YoY) - Mar
EC ECB Euro-Zone Current Account SA - Feb
Euro-Zone Current Account nsa - Feb
UK CPI (YoY) - Mar
EC ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) - Apr
GE ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) - Apr
Zew Survey (Current Situation) - Apr
WEDNESDAY 21-Apr
AU DEWR Skilled Vacancies MoM - Apr
JN Leading Index CI - Feb F
Coincident Index CI - Feb F
UK Bank of England Minutes - Apr 21
Claimant Count Rate - Mar
Jobless Claims Change - Mar
Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY - Feb
Weekly Earnings exBonus 3M/YoY - Feb
ILO Unemployment Rate (3mths) - Feb
THURSDAY 22-Apr
JN Merchnds Trade Balance Total - Mar
AU New Motor Vehicle Sales MoM - Mar
NZ ANZ Consumer Confidence Index - Apr
GE PMI Services - Apr A
PMI Manufacturing - Apr A
EC Euro-Zone Govt Debt/GDP Ratio - Jan 2010
PMI Services - Apr A
PMI Manufacturing - Apr A
UK Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel(MoM) - Mar
Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel(YoY) - Mar
Public Sector Net Borrowing - Mar
M4 Money Supply (YoY) - Mar P
Major Banks Mortgage Approvals - Mar
FRIDAY 23-Apr
US Producer Price Index (MoM) - Mar
PPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) - Mar
Producer Price Index (YoY) - Mar
PPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) - Mar
Initial Jobless Claims - Apr 18
Continuing Claims - Apr 11
House Price Index MoM - Feb
Existing Home Sales MoM - Mar
EC Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence - Apr A
NZ Visitor Arrivals - Mar
AU Import price index (QoQ) - 1Q
Export price index (QoQ) - 1Q
NZ Credit Card Spending SA (MoM) - Mar
Credit Card Spending (YoY) - Mar
JN All Industry Activity Index (MoM) - Feb
GE IFO - Business Climate - Apr
IFO - Current Assessment - Apr
IFO - Expectations - Apr
UK GDP (QoQ) - 1Q A
GDP (YoY) - 1Q A
EC Industrial New Orders SA (MoM) - Feb
Industrial New Orders SA (YoY) - Feb
SATURDAY 24-Apr
US Durable Goods Orders - Mar
Durables Ex Transportation – Mar
New Home Sales MoM – Mar
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