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MONDAY 12TH APRIL 2010
Ranges
NZD/USD: .6963/7170
AUD/USD: .9167/9350
NZD/AUD .7550/7679
Last week
Kiwi managed to stay above the key 70 cent mark last week which has ensured a bid time to the market, as soon as the Greek rescue package was announced. Along with this some good data at the end of the week, and the risk trades generally were sought after, confirmed the direction.
The Dollar failed its latest rally as the currencies took flight along with the Euro. NZD/AUD had a run south early on in the week, but reversed as the good data release came out of NZ and the market was caught short on Friday night.
What we did
Long Kiwi at the first part of the week
Stayed out of it on Friday night, as the market caught itself over positioned.
This week
Big story early Monday morning was the Greek rescue package. This saw Euro jump strongly in the extremely thin open this morning, dragging all the risk currencies with it, and of course giving the Dollar a smack lower. This looks to be the trend for this week with the market overly short Euros and with the Dow recovering the risk trades will benefit the most.
Watch out for more negative releases out of Europe though, just to throw a spanner in the works but big levels have been breached topside now and these should provide strong support on dips.
Lots and lots of US data out this week.
What we will do
Buy Euros on dips along with Aussie.
Stay neutral Kiwi here
Buy USD/JPY
THE WEEK AHEAD
MONDAY 12 Apr
JP BOJ Monetary Policy Minutes- March
M3 – y/y - Mar
AU Value of housing loans – m/m - Feb
TUESDAY 13 Apr
US Monthly Budget Statement - Mar
NZ Electronic Card Transactions – m/m - Mar
UK RICS House Price Balance - Mar
AU NAB Business Confidence - Mar
GE Consumer Price Index – y/y – Mar F
UK Total Trade Balance – Feb
WEDNESDAY 14 Apr
US Trade Balance - Feb
Import Price Index - y/y - Mar
ABC Consumer Confidence – Apr 12
NZ Retail Sales - m/m - Feb
Retail Sales (ex-auto) – m/m - Feb
US Bernanke speech on financial literacy
Fed’s Lacker speech on US economic outlook
NZ Non-resident bond holdings - Mar
THURSDAY 15 Apr
US Consumer Price Index – y/y - Mar
Core CPI – y/y - Mar
Advance retail sales – Mar
Business Inventories - Feb
Bernanke Testimony before Joint Economic Committee of Congress
Fed’s Beige Book
NZ Business NZ PMI - Mar
JP Industrial Production – m/m – Feb F
EC ECB April Monthly Report
Trade Balance - Feb
FRIDAY 16 Apr
US Initial Jobless Claims – Apr 11
Continuing Claims – Apr 4
Empire Manufacturing - Apr
Net Long-term TIC flows - Feb
Industrial Production – m/m - Mar
Capacity Utilisation - Mar
Philadelphia Fed - Apr
Fed Lacker Speech
Fed’s Bullard Speech on financial risks
NAHB Housing Market Index - Apr
NZ REINZ House Sales – y/y - Mar
US Fed’s Yellen Speech on US outlook
EC EU finance chiefs, central bankers hold informal Ecofin
Euro-Zone CPI – y/y - Mar
Euro-Zone core CPI – y/y - Mar
SATURDAY 17 Apr
US Housing Starts – Mar
University of Michigan Consumer Confidence – Apr P
Fed Hoenig Speech on Financial Crisis |
