|
Monday 29th March 2010
Ranges
NZD/USD: .7000/7096
AUD/USD: .9002/9197
NZD/AUD: .7666/7797
Last week
Kiwi held the important 70 cent level last week as month end flows, very weak Euro, and a strong USD failed to push Kiwi lower. However, the market was very quiet last week, and things remained inside recent ranges.
Some good and bad data out of Kiwi land last week, which balanced out, and will have not of changed the RBNZ ‘s outlook.
Greece and Portugal dominated the global picture, with downgrades and rescue packages a plenty.
What we did
Traded the range
Got caught short NZD/AUD and stopped out
This week
The Greek rescue package has caught the market short Euro, as almost every punter has been on the one way bet, so look for this correction coming up. This will underpin Kiwi on the week, along with the proposed RBA rate decision later on next month. Even with the USD strengthening, the world is looking slightly more rosy so the risk trades will once again come into the fore.
Lots of data out next month locally and with things sitting around the mid points we can’t see any reason for the currencies to break out of recent ranges especially as we come into the long Easter weekend.
What we will do
Trade the ranges
Cautiously buy Euro on dips
The Week Ahead
Monday 29 Mar
JN Retail Sales – yoy - Feb
UK Mortgage Lending – bln - Feb
M4 Money Supply – mom – Feb
EC Eurozone Economic Sentiment - Mar
Eurozone Consumer Sentiment - Mar
Tuesday 30 Mar
US Personal Income – mom – Feb
Personal Spending – mom – Feb
Core PCE Deflator – mom – Feb
Dallas Feb Mfg Survey – Feb
NZ Building Permits – mom – Feb
AU RBA Deputy Governor Debelle speaks
JN Household spending – yoy – Feb
Unemployment rate – Feb
NZ M3 Money Supply – yoy – Feb
UK GDP – qoq - Q4 – Final
Current Account –Q4
Wednesday 31 Mar
UK Gfk consumer confidence – Mar
JN Manufacturing PMI – Mar
US S&P Case Shiller 20 City House Price Index – mom – Feb
Consumer Confidence- Mar
NZ NBNZ Business Confidence
AU Retail Sales – mom – Feb
Private Sector Credit – mom – Feb
Building Approvals – mom –m Feb
GE Unemployment Change – Mar
Unemployment Rate – Mar
EC Unemployment rate – Feb
CPI inflation – Flash estimate – Mar
Thursday 1 Apr
US ADP Employment Change – Mar
CA GDP – mom – Jan
US Chicago PMI – Mar
Factory Orders – mom – Feb
NAPM Milwaukee – Mar
JP Tankan – capex estimate – Q1
Tankan – large manufacturers – Q1
Tankan – large non-manufacturers – Q1
AU Trade Balance – Feb
RBA Commodity Price Index – yoy – SDR terms
GE Retail Sales – mom – Feb
PMI Manufacturing – Mar
EC PMI Manufacturing– Mar
UK PMI Manufacturing – Mar
Friday 2 Apr
US Initial Jobless Claims – Mar 28th
Continuing Claims – Mar 21st
ISM Manufacturing – Mar
Construction Spending – mom – Feb
Saturday 3 Apr
US Change in Non-farm payrolls - M |
