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MONDAY 22ND MARCH 2010
Ranges
NZD/USD: .6986/7175
AUD/USD: . 9102/9247
NZD/AUD: . 7635/7775
Last week
Last week Kiwi failed to break the all important 7175 mark. This has now seen Kiwi settled into a nice range as there was no new news here locally to upset the apple cart.
More jaw boning over the latter part of the week about Greece’s inclusion in the Euro Zone, this saw the Euro , AUD and Kiwi finish the week on their lows.
A short NZD/AUD market pushed this cross higher throughout the week, but as sense ruturned to the market, the fundamentals have started to weigh on this currency pair again.
What we did
Sold Kiwi on that final rally last week, still short
Sold some NZD/AUD near the highs but took profit too early
This week
Lots of talk around the market of Kiwi/Yen and AUD/Yen selling as we approach year end. These crosses should be capped on any rally now and this will weigh heavily on Kiwi/USD. Along with the weak end to last week, more Euro zone comments and weak data out this week will keep a lid on any rallies.
Big data week for Kiwi, with GDP and current account out Wed, Thursday.
All eyes on the health reform in the US to see which way that will swing, it’s a 50/50 bet for now, unlike the cricket here at home, bring on the rain.
What we will do
Sell NZD on rallies
Sell NZD/AUD
THE WEEK AHEAD
Monday 22-Mar
AU New vehicle sales – mom - Feb
Tuesday 23-Mar
US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index - Feb
EZ Eurozone Consumer Confidence – Mar
ECB’s Trichet Speaks at Parliamentary Panel
US Treasury’s Geithner address
JN BOJ Monetary Policy Minutes - Feb
UK CPI – yoy - Feb
Core CPI – yoy - Feb
Wednesday 24-Mar
US Existing Home Sales - % mom - Feb
EC ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment – Mar
CPI – mom – Feb
US Housing Starts – mom – Feb
House Price index – mom – Jan
ABC Consumer Confidence – Mar 22
NZ Current Account Balance – Q4
Current Account Balance to GDP – Q4
JN Merchandise Trade Balance - Feb (yen)
GE PMI Manufacturing – Mar
IFO Business Climate – Mar
IFO Business Climate
EC PMI Manufacturing - Mar
PMI Composite
Thursday 25-Mar
US Durable Goods Orders- Feb
PPI Ex Food & Energy – mom – Feb
UK Budget Report Published
US New home sales - mom – Feb
Fed’s Hoenig speaks
NZ GDP – qoq – Q4
GDP – yoy – Q4
GE Gfk Consumer Confidence - Apr
EZ M3 (s.a 3m average)
UK Retail sales –mom- Feb
Core retail sales –mom- Feb
Friday 26-Mar
US Initial Jobless Claims – Mar 21
Continuing Claims – Mar 14
NZ Trade Balance - Feb
Exports - Febh
Trade Balance – 12m total - Feb
AU Governor Stephens Address
JP CPI – yoy - Feb
Core CPI – yoy - Feb
UK Business Investment – qoq – 4q |
