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TUESDAY 16TH MARCH 2010
Ranges
NZD/USD: .6962/7088
AUD/USD: .9055/9196
NZD/AUD: .7631/7724
Last week
Kiwi was sidelined last week, as global events continued to play out. With the risk trades struggling to get back on board, Kiwi has been left out of the game, instead, flows have been directed across the ditch as the Aussie continues to look attractive to investors.
RBNZ on Thursday was a little more dovish than expected as interest rates look set to stay lower than the long term average for some time.
Currencies stayed within their recent ranges as the market had no new themes to digest and current levels look reasonable.
What we did
Traded the ranges
This week
Hate to say it for boredoms sake, but it looks like we will see more of the same.
Improving data out of the States over the past few weeks should underpin the USD on any dips. All eyes will be watching this week FOMC to see if there is any change to the accompanying statements.
With China looking to raise rates to curb inflation this should lead to a slowdown in commodity growth/prices. This will have a negative effect on the Kiwi which has being struggling to maintain 70 cents. Along with a higher USD and a weak Euro, Kiwi looks set to continue to fall faster than it rallies.
What we will do
Buy USD on dips
Sell Kiwi on rallies
Trade recent ranges
THE WEEK AHEAD
MONDAY 15-Mar
NZ BNZ Performance of Service Index - Feb
AU RBA Deputy Governor Edey speaks in Sydney
UK Rightmove House Prices – mom – Mar
EC Eurozone Employment – qoq – Q4
TUESDAY 16-Mar
US Empire Mfg Survey – Mar
Long Term TIC Flows – Jan
Industrial Production – mom – Feb
Capacity Utilisation – Feb
AU RBA February Meeting minutes
UK DCLG House Prices – yoy – Jan
GE ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment – Mar
ZEW Survey – Current Situation – Mar
EC ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment – Mar
CPI – mom – Feb
WEDNESDAY 17-Mar
US Housing Starts – mom – Feb
FOMC Rate Decision
AU Dwelling Start – qoq – Q4
UK Jobless Claimant Count Rate – Feb
Average Weekly Earnings – 3m/yoy - Jan
ILO Unemployment Rate – Jan
JN Bank of Japan Rate Decision
THURSDAY 18-Mar
US PPI – mom - Feb
PPI Ex Food & Energy – mom – Feb
Fed’s Fisher speaks on Learning from the Crisis
JN BSI – Large All Industry Index – qoq – Q1
BSI Large Manufacturing Index – qoq – Q1
NZ ANZ Consumer Confidence - Feb
UK Public Sector Net Borrowing – Feb
UK M4 Money Supply – mom – Feb
EC Eurozone Current Account – Jan
FRIDAY 19-Mar
US Fed’s Duke speaks in Washington
CPI – mom - Feb
Initial Jobless Claims – Mar 14th
Continuing Claims – Mar 7th
Fed’s Hoenig, Lacker, Pianalto speak to Bankers in Washington
Philadelphia Fed Index – Mar
NZ Visitor Arrivals – Feb
Net Permanent Long Term Migration – annual – Feb
GE PPI – mom – Feb |
