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MONDAY 8TH MARCH 2010
Ranges
NZD/USD: . 6848/7001
AUD/USD: . 8932/9089
NZD/AUD: . 7624/7822
Last week
Generally a range bound session last week, with the Euro, NZD and AUD heading lower. First up, however, some strong data out of the States on Friday night (nonfarm payrolls) lead to a resurgent Dow and risk was put back on the table. This saw Kiwi, AUD and Euro return to the weeks highs and start this week off on a positive note.
The NZD/AUD cross finally broke lower and this level (7730) should now be major resistance on any rally, as the divergent economies are directly reflected in the yield difference.
What we did
Stayed shot NZD/AUD
Stayed short NZD on this latest rally, added to it and will stop if Kiwi breaches 7030
This week
All eyes here at home with the RBNZ OCR on Thursday. He will sit on his hands again, as rates stay unchanged. With the tax changes coming up shortly this well help take the sting out of a bull run in property and thus keep inflation low.
NZD/AUD once again looks set to test lower with no reason fundamentally for anyone to be buying Kiwi over Aussie.
Globally the world is happy to have risk on again, as the US looks set to make a mild come back with most data staring show that the consumer is in a better place than they have been for some time, and of course, employment opportunities are growing.
This week
Sell NZD/AUD on rallies
Trade ranges on other currencies
Buy USD/JPY on dips
THE WEEK AHEAD
Monday 8-Mar
NZ QVNZ House Prices
Manufacturing Activity – qoq – Q4
Tuesday 9-Mar
NZ Electronic Card Transactions – mom - Feb
AU NAB Business Confidence – Feb
ANZ Job Ads – mom – Feb
UK Trade Balance – Jan
Wednesday10-Mar
US IBD/TIPP Econ Optimism - Mar
NZ Terms of Trade – qoq – Q4
AU RBA Deputy Governor Lowe Speaks
Westpac Consumer Confidence – mom - Mar
Home Loans
Investment Lending
GE Trade Balance – Jan
UK Industrial Production – mom – Jan
Thursday 11-Mar
US Monthly Budget Statement - Feb
NZ RBNZ OCR Review
BNZ Business NZ PMI – Feb
AU Employment – mom – Feb
Unemployment Rate – Feb
Friday 12-Mar
US Trade Balance – Jan
Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 7th)
NZ REINZ House Sales – yoy – Jan
REINZ House Prices – mom – Feb
Retail Sales – mom – Jan
Saturday 13-Mar
EC Eurozone Industrial Production – mom – Jan
US Advance Retail Sales – mom – Feb
Univ. Michigan Confidence – Mar
Business Inventories – mom – Jan
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