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MONDAY 1ST MARCH 2010
Ranges
NZD/USD: .6843/ 7058
AUD/USD: . 8803/9067
NZD/AUD: . 7729/7832
Last week
A choppy week last week, with the currencies moving around as the European situation got worse, then better, then worse, really, who knows why it would get better. Greece has been downgraded sideways left and right, the European Union starting to show cracks and the Germans getting upset at the Greeks, after they said the Germans should be paying reparations for WW2 invasion.
Kiwi getting punished on the back of the above, as the risk trades continue to get un wound and Kiwi/AUD looks terrible, but a relief rally at the end of the week due to end of year/month flows has seen a reversal, but it’s not fundamental.
What we did
Stayed short NZD/AUD
Short Kiwi, got stopped out on Saturday morning
This week
All eyes on RBA this week with a 50/50 call on a rate hike. We say they raise 25 basis points as the data has been just too strong. Kiwi AUD will test 75cents then lower.
Nonfarm payrolls on Friday night will set further USD tone, if it prints on the positive side of the forecast number then the USD will rally nicely, buy Dol/Yen on that one.
Overall, some very good ranges have been set, and this bodes for good trading opportunities in the next couple of weeks
What we will do
Sell NZD/AUD
Trade ranges in NZD, AUD and Euro
THE WEEK AHEAD
Monday 1-Mar
NZ Visitor Arrivals – Jan
AU RBA Governor Stevens Speaks in Melbourne
TD Inflation Gauge – mom - Feb
Current Account Balance – Q4
NZ ANZ Commodity Prices – mom - Feb
AU RBA Commodity Price Index – yoy – Feb
UK Mortgage Approvals – Jan
PMI Manufacturing – Jan
EC Eurozone Unemployment
Tuesday 2-Mar
US Personal Income – mom – Jan
Personal Spending – mom – Jan
Core PCE Deflator – yoy – Jan
Fed’s Lacker speaks in Washington
ISM Manufacturing – Feb
Former Fed Chairman Volcker speaks in San Francisco
JN Joblee Rate – Jan
AU Building Approvals – mom – Jan
Retail Sales – mom – Jan
RBA Interest Rate Decision
UK PMI Construction – Feb
EC Eurozone Flash CPI estimate – yoy - Feb
Eurozone PPI
Wednesday 3-Mar
NZ Fonterra Milk Auction Results
UK Nationwide Building Society Consumer Confidence
AU GDP – qoq – Q4
UK PMI Services – Feb
EC Eurozone Retail Sales – mom – Jan
Thursday 4-Mar
US ADP Employment Change – mom – Feb
ISM Non Manufacturing – Feb
Fed Beige Book
JN Capital Spending – qoq – Q4
AU Trade Balance – Jan
US Federal Budget
EC Eurozone GDP – qoq – Q4 (P)
Friday 5-Mar
UK Bank of England Rate Decision
EC ECB Interest Rate Decision
US Initial Jobless Claims – Feb 28
Continuing Claims – Feb 21
Pending Home Sales – mom – Jan
Factory Orders – mom – Jan
AU Foreign Reserves – Feb
UK PPI Outputs – yoy – Feb
Saturday 6-Mar
GE Factory Orders – mom – Jan
US Non-farm Payrolls
Unemployment |
