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TUESDAY 3rd FEBRUARY 2009 Ranges Nzd 5027/5362 Aud 6320/6720 Nzdaud 7824/8116 Last week Obviously the big news was the interest rate cut (150 points) and the dovish statements from the RBNZ. This obviously saw Kiwi get a smashing that has pushed it to new lows, yesterday we saw Kiwi print with a 49 handle on it. It seems that the grey man wants Kiwi lower and all his comments since the OCR have been to that effect, along with the continued bad news coming out of NZ there looks like there’s only one way Kiwi can go. More of the same from the rest of the globe, as the US recession bites harder and Euro and Sterling get absolutely no respite. What we did Got short Kiwi into the OCR and have added to it taking some really good profit at 4990 Traded NZD/AUD from the short side. This week Several key central bank meetings on the agenda this week, although we expect to see the currencies get driven by sentiment and risk appetite. RBA announcement this afternoon will be watched closely, with the market looking for a 100 basis point easing, we are thinking we could see 150 points to keep the gap with NZ consistent. Also the commentary will be watched closely to see what they are thinking further out. With more important data out from Aussie on Wednesday, it looks like it will be the one to watch. Let’s hope they don’t cheat on these figures, and keep their gloves on the right side of the stumps! What we will do Stay short Kiwi and look to add on rallies, and watch the key 5200 cent area for a reversal Trade the range in NZD/AUD, looking to buy it on dips now the market looks short. The Week Ahead
MONDAY 2ND FEBRUARY
AUS
HOUSE PRICE INDEX, DEC QTR(0030)
US
CORE PCE, DEC (1330)
PERSONAL INCOME, DEC (1330)
PERSONAL SPENDING, DEC (1330)
ISM MANUFACTURING, JAN (1500)
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING, DEC (1500)
NZ
QES, DEC QTR (2145, SUN)
AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS, DECQTR (2145, SUN)
LABOUR COST INDEX, DEC QTR (2145, SUN)
EURO AREAPMI MANUFACTURING (final), JAN (0900)
GERMANYPMI MANUFACTURING (final), JAN (0855)
RETAIL SALES, DEC (2nd Feb – 5th Feb)
FRANCE
PMI MANUFACTURING (final), JAN (0850)
ITALYPMI MANUFACTURING, JAN (0845)
UKPMI MANUFACTURING, JAN (0930) TUESDAY 3RD FEB
AUS
RBA ANNOUNCEMENT ON INTEREST RATES, FEB (0330)
TRADE BALANCE, DEC (0030)
US
PENDING HOME SALES, DEC (1500)
EURO AREA
PPI, DEC (1000)
UK
PMI CONSTRUCTION, JAN (0930) WEDNESDAY 4TH FEB
AUS
RETAIL SALES, DEC (0030)
BUILDING APPROVALS, DEC (0030)
US
ISM NON-MANUFACTURING, JAN (1500)
NZ
EXTERNAL MIGRATION, DEC (2145,TUE)
EURO AREA
RETAIL SALES, DEC (1000)
PMI SERVICES (final), JAN (0900)
PMI COMPOSITE (final), JAN (0900)
GERMANY
PMI SERVICES (final), JAN (0855)
FRANCE
PMI SERVICES (final), JAN (0850)
ITALY
PMI SERVICES, JAN (0845)Dec: 40.3
UK
PMI SERVICES, JAN (0930)Dec: 40.2 THURSDAY 5TH FEB
US
NON-FARM PRODUCTIVITY, DEC QTR (1330)
UNIT LABOUR COSTS, DEC QTR (1330)
FACTORY ORDERS, DEC (1500)
NZ
HOUSEHOLD LABOUR FORCESURVEY, DEC QTR (2145, WED)
EMPLOYMENT CHANGE, DEC QTR (2145, WED)
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, DEC QTR
EURO AREA
ECB GOVERNING COUNCIL MEETING FOLLOWED BY INTEREST RATE
ANNOUNCEMENT, JAN (1245)
GERMANY
FACTORY ORDERS, DEC (1100)
ITALY
CPI (prelim), JAN (1000)
UK
BANK OF ENGLAND INTEREST RATE ANNOUNCEMENT, FEB (1200) FRIDAY 6TH FEB
AUS
RBA QUARTERLY STATEMENT ONMONETARY POLICY, FEB QTR (0030)
US
NON-FARM PAYROLLS, JAN (1330)Dec: -524k
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, JAN (1330)Dec: 7.2%
AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS, JAN
CONSUMER CREDIT, DEC (2100)
NZ
WAITANGI DAY – MARKET HOLIDAY
GERMANY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, DEC
FRANCETRADE BALANCE, DEC (0745)
UK
PPI INPUT, JAN (0930)
PPI OUTPUT, JAN (0930)
MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION,
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, DEC |
