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Tuesday 27th January 2009 Ranges NZD/USD: 5164-5348 AUD/USD: 6420-6651 NZD/AUD: 7968-8138 Last week Obama’s inauguration kicked the week off with a stronger USD as the market has been placing firm hopes on his regime. This saw Kiwi and AUD receive a pasting. This pushed Kiwi down to 6 year lows and through some big chart points, only to recover later on in the week as exporters and a short market came into play. Data out here at home was mixed, with the CPI lower than expected, counteracted by stronger retails sales. The UK went into recession and this didn’t help the other currencies at all, but yesterday we saw the GBP rally strongly on bailout packages for all and sundry. What we did Started the week out going long kiwi and AUD but changed our view and ended up the week square with a little bit of cash in the bank. Never managed to get the NZD/AUD move on board, but we were square looking to sell NZD/AUD, so no hurt there. This week Big week for NZ with the interest rate announcement out on Thursday. Everyone and US looking for a 1 percent easing. The following statement will be interesting, whether or not he thinks he will have done enough will be the major focus for the whole event. With Kiwi crosses getting near all time lows the currency has certainly fallen far enough. US FOMC tomorrow, looking for more easing perhaps, but there isn’t any room to go any more. So with more stimulus packages around the corner from the new president, I expect to see help for the economy from that sector. It’s going to be a busy week so we will be keeping positions small and easy to trade. What we will do Trade the ranges of late but not get caught up in the noise BuyAUD on dips Sell NZD/AUD on rallies Week Ahead – January 2009MONDAY 26 JanuaryAUSAUSTRALIA DAY – MARKETHOLIDAYUSLEADING INDICATORS, DEC (1500)Nov: -0.4% Act: -0.3%EXISTING HOME SALES, DEC (1500)Nov: 4.5m Act: 4.7mNZ CREDIT CARD SPENDING, DEC (0200)
PUBLIC HOLIDAY - AUCKLAND REGION ONLY TUESDAY 27 JanuaryAUSNAB MONTHLY BUSINESS SURVEY,DEC (0030)PPI, DEC QTR (0030)USFOMC INTEREST RATE MEETING(DAY ONE), JANCONSUMER CONFIDENCE, JANEURO AREACURRENT ACCOUNT, NOV (0900)GERMANYIFO INDEX, JAN (0900)ITALYCONSUMER CONFIDENCE, JANTRADE BALANCE (Non-EU), DEC WEDNESDAY 28 JanuaryAUSCPI, DEC QTR (0030)USFOMC MEETING (DAY TWO) AND ANNOUNCEMENT ON INTEREST RATES, JAN (1915)FRANCECONSUMER CONFIDENCE, JANITALYBUSINESS CONFIDENCE, JAN (0830) THURSDAY 29 JanuaryUSDURABLE GOODS ORDERS, DECNEW HOME SALES, DEC (1500)CANADAPPI, DEC (1330)NZRBNZ ANNOUNCEMENT ON INTEREST RATES, JAN (2000, WED)TRADE BALANCE, DEC (2145, WED)EURO AREABUSINESS CLIMATE, JAN (1000)CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, JANECONOMIC CONFIDENCE, JAN (1000)GERMANYCPI (prelim), JANUNEMPLOYMENT RATE, DEC (0700)UKNATIONWIDE HOUSE PRICES, JAN FRIDAY 30 JanuaryAUSPRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT, DECUSGDP (advanced), DEC QTR (1330)PERSONAL CONSUMPTION, DEC QTR (1330)CORE PCE, DEC QTR (1330)EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX, DEC QTR CANADAGDP, NOV (1330)NZBUILDING PERMITS, DEC (2145, THU)EURO AREACPI (flash), JAN (1000)UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, DEC (1000)FRANCEPPI, DEC (0745)ITALYPPI, DEC (1000)UKCONSUMER CONFIDENCE, JANCONSUMER CREDIT, DEC (0930) MORTGAGE APPROVALS, DEC (0930) |
