News

MONDAY 15^TH DECEMBER 2008

Ranges

NZD/USD: 5360/5567

AUD/USD: 6452/6798

NZD/AUD: 8173/8357

Last week

Nice rangy week last week, with the market starting to wind down nicely into Christmas. It’s been the most wild year in FX ever and most traders are happy to call it a year, and this is been shown in the lack of interest out there.

One good thing, is that the Dow seems to have settled nicely and even weak US data is having little effect. This weak data is actually pushing Kiwi and AUD higher as the Dollar weakens; where as for the last few months all the currencies would have taken a beating on the back of the weak Dow.

I’m loath to say it, but it looks like we might have seen the bottom in both AUD and Kiwi and perhaps even the Dow.

What we did

Traded NZD range nicely in small amounts

Looked to sell Kiwi against the AUD but didn’t get set.

This week

Well I know we say it a lot, but, we think more of the same. Getting more confident on buying on dips now, and selling US dollars on rallies for the above reasons.

Lots of US data out early in the week that will be watched carefully, but I really think the market has slipped into holiday mode. US interest rate decision will be interesting to say the least, will they or wont they cut again? Probably, but not as much as they have of late.

This week

Overall, I like buying Kiwi and trading the above range in the Kiwi/AUD

Sell USD/JPY on rallies above 91.25

Monday 15^th Dec
US
NET LONG TERM TIC FLOWS, OCT
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, NOV
CAPACITY UTILISATION, NOV (1415)
NAHB HOUSING INDEX, DEC (1800)
NZ
MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY, SEPQTR (2145, SUN)

Tuesday 16^th Dec
AUS
RBA MEETING MINUTES, DEC (0030)
DWELLING STARTS, SEP QTR (0030)
US
FOMC MEETING AND INTEREST RATE ANNOUNCEMENT, DEC (1915)
CPI, NOV (1330)
HOUSING STARTS, NOV (1330)
BUILDING PERMITS, NOV (1330)