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TUESDAY 25th NOVMEBER 2008 Ranges
AUD/USD: 6075-6597
NZD/USD: 5190-5624
NZD/AUD: 1.16-1.1866
Last week More weak US data out last week, with continued worries regarding the US automotive sector weighing on all the asset classes. Forecasts for job losses were in the millions if they collapsed, but the government came through with another loan to stave off the dogs. Here at home the trend continued as we waded further into a recession, but I get the feeling that this will be a lot shorter and shallower than the media suggests. Already we have seen the house oprices starting to recover as interest rates start to fall. The year on year fall in medium house prices haven’t fallen that much to begin with. Yeap good old media. What we did Got a little chopped up in the NZD as the Dow turned itself inside a couple of days in a row Traded the Kiwi/AUD really nicely This week Lots of important US data out this week, most especially the GDP data out Tuesday night. This will obviously be watched closely but probably not as closely as the governments bail out of Citi bank. They were never going to let that one go, its not only an American icon it also has a huge retail base. Here at home we will continue to watch oil and interest rates fall. Some now saying we will see a 1.5 % drop next week and with the inflation effect of oil prices out, they could be right. We need to see the RBNZ be much more aggressive than that of late. Expect to Kiwi and AUD to remain in the same overall range, of late it appears that fair value in this climate is around here. What we will do Trade the great range in AUD and Kiwi Keep selling Kiwi against the AUD Please note that due to US holiday on Thursday 27thNovember, we will close out the week on Friday 28th November. Month Ahead – November 2008 MONDAY 24th Nov
US
EXISTING HOME SALES, OCT (1500) TUESDAY 25th Nov
US
GDP (prelim), SEP QTR (1330)
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION (prelim),SEP QTR (1330)
CORE PCE (prelim), SEP QTR (1330)
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, NOV
OFHEO HOUSE PRICE INDEX, SEP
NZ
RBNZ INFLATION EXPECTATIONS,DEC QTR (0200) WEDNESDAY 26th Nov
AUS
CONSTRUCTION WORK DONE, SEPQTR (0030)
SKILLED VACANCIES, NOV (0000)
US
CORE PCE, OCT (1330)
PERSONAL INCOME, OCT (1330)
PERSONAL SPENDING, OCT (1330)
DURABLE GOODS ORDERS, OCT
NEW HOME SALES, OCT (1500) T HURSDAY 27th Nov
AUS
PRIVATE CAPITAL EXPENDITURE,SEP QTR (0030)
NZ
TRADE BALANCE, OCT (2145, WED)Sep: -NZ$1183m
NBNZ BUSINESS CONFIDENCE, NOV
US
THANKSGIVING DAY – MARKETHOLIDAY FRIDAY 28th Nov
AUS
PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT, OCT
NZ
BUILDING PERMITS, OCT (2145, THU) |
