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Monday 10th November 2008 Ranges Nzd 5792/6118 Aud 6603/7006 Nzdaud 8612/8874 Last week A good week for us, as we picked up Kiwi and AUD from the bottom and cleared it at the top. With the Aussies cutting rates sharply again it was more a case of which country is doing the most for economic growth, instead of which one has the highest rates. The world has changed on that front and of course we are behind the eight ball. The central banks around the world cut rates as well, but no one could beat the English with a 1.5% cut. The US employment data was weaker than expected and also with a downwards revision in the previous months. This saw AUD and Kiwi higher as a forecast in the US was sharply negative, however a late rally in the US equity markets saw everyting underpinend nicely. What we did Traded in and out nicely but in small amounts Bought Kiwi against Aussie This week The Aussies once again have out bid our central bank, saying that they will cut rates further and quicker if needed. Also they have said that global growth forecast has lowered their own further. The market has surged this off, as the equities markets continue to recover. Lots more of the same expected this week from the different central banks, except ours who remain obviously slient. Retail sales data out here later in the week which will be largely over shadowed by global events. We expect to see Kiwi and AUD continue to grind higher on the back of returning confidence in the world markets. The USD should continue to fall against its trading partners as the Dollar takes the brunt of poor US data What we will do Buy AUD and Kiwi on dips but watch closely for news release Monday 10th Nov
AUS
RBA QUARTERLY STATEMENT ON MONETARY POLICY, NOV QTR (0030)
HOUSING FINANCE, SEP (0030)
NZ
REINZ HOUSE SALES, OCT (10TH –14TH)
EURO AREAECB PRESIDENT TRICHET SPEAKS AT A PRESS
BRIEFING AT AMEETING OF THE BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL
SETTLEMENTS,SAO PAOLO (1430)
FRANCE
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, SEP(0900)
ITALY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, SEP
UK
PPI INPUT, OCT (0930)
PPI OUTPUT, OCT (0930) Tuesday 11th Nov
AUS
NAB MONTHLY BUSINESS SURVEY,
NZ
PPI, SEP QTR (2145, MON)
GERMANY
ZEW INDEX, NOV (1000)
UK
TRADE BALANCE, SEP (0930) Wednesday 12th Nov
AUS
TREASURY SECRETARY KEN HENRY ADDRESS TO THE
NATIONAL PRESS CLUB (0100)
WAGE COST INDEX, SEP QTR (0030)
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, NOV
EURO AREA
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, SEP
UK
BANK OF ENGLAND QUARTERLY INFLATION REPORT (1030)
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, SEP (0930)
AVERAGE EARNINGS EX BONUS, Thursday 13th Nov
AUS
AVERAGE WEEKLY WAGES, AUG
US
TRADE BALANCE, SEP (1330)
NZ
RETAIL SALES, SEP (2145, WED)
REAL RETAIL SALES, SEP QTR (2125,WED)
EURO AREA
ECB PRESIDENT TRICHET SPEAKS AT 5TH ECB CENTRAL BANKING
CONFERENCE, FRANKFURT (1830)
ECB MONTHLY BULLETIN, NOV(0900)
GERMANY
GDP (prelim), SEP QTR (0700)
FRANCE
CPI, OCT (0745)CURRENT ACCOUNT, SEP (0745)
ITALY
CPI (final), OCT (0900) Friday 14th Nov
US
FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIRMAN BERNANKE SPEAKS ON
“POLICYCOORDINATION AMONG CENTRALBANKS” AT
THE ECB CENTRAL BANKING CONFERENCE,FRANKFURT (1400)
IMPORT PRICE INDEX, OCT (1330)
EXPORT PRICE INDEX, OCT (1330)
RETAIL SALES, OCT (1330)
BUSINESS INVENTORIES, SEP (1330)
CANADA
NEW MOTOR VEHICLE SALES, SEP
EURO AREA
ECB PRESIDENT TRICHET SPEAKS AT THE 5th ECB CENTRAL BANKING
CONFERENCE, FRANKFURT (1400)
GDP (prelim), SEP QTR (1000)
CPI, OCT (1000)
GERMANY
CPI (final),
FRANCE
GDP (prelim), SEP QTR (0745)
ITALY
GDP (prelim), SEP QTR (0900) |
